Sūduva vs Džiugas Telšiai: match statistics

Džiugas Telšiai appears favored based on form and results: they have 5 wins this season versus Sūduva's 2 and have won 4 of their last 5 matches, averaging 2.6 points per game, while Sūduva has 1 win in their last 5 and averages 1.0 point per game. The visitors’ away defence is notable — Sūduva have not conceded at their home stadium yet (average 0 conceded and 100% clean sheets), but they also failed to score in 50% of home matches, which limits their attacking output. Offensive metrics are similar: Sūduva averages 12.25 shots and 3.75 on target per home game with xG 1.53 and an average of 1.75 goals, while Džiugas records 11.17 shots, 3.17 on target, xG 1.31 and an average 1.33 goals away. Lower FTS for the visitors (17% vs 50%), together with a better winning run and a lower average of away goals conceded (0.5), support a narrow Džiugas victory.

I assess BTTS - Yes as less likely: Džiugas concedes only 0.5 goals per match on average and has a 67% clean sheet rate, with 0 goals conceded in the last 5 matches, which is a strong defensive signal. Sūduva scores 1.0 and concedes 1.0 at home on the season, and in the last 5 matches averages 1.4 scored and 0.8 conceded, indicating a moderate home attack. Both teams have similar attacking xG (1.37 for Sūduva vs 1.31 for Džiugas), but season BTTS is 50% for Sūduva versus only 33% for Džiugas, while the league records just 38% BTTS and as many as 81% of matches with a clean sheet. Considering Džiugas’s 0% BTTS in the last 5 fixtures, his 67% clean sheets and the overall high clean sheet rate in the league, it is more likely that at least one team will fail to score; therefore the recommendation is a 'No' on BTTS.

Based on xG: Sūduva’s attacking xG is 1.37, Džiugas’s attacking xG is 1.31, and opponents’ xG conceded are 1.11 (for Sūduva’s rivals) and 1.22 (for Džiugas’s rivals), yielding an expected 1.24 goals for Sūduva and 1.27 for Džiugas (total 2.51). Season averages show Sūduva scores 1.00 at home, Džiugas 1.33 away, and Over 0.5 occurred in 100% of Sūduva’s matches and 83% of Džiugas’s matches, so at least one goal in the match is very likely. On the other hand Džiugas has 67% clean sheets and has not conceded in the last 5 matches (ga_l5_away = 0.0), and season Over 2.5 rates are 50% for Sūduva vs 17% for Džiugas, which limits the chance of a high-scoring game. Considering the combined expected 2.51 goals, the difference in finishing efficiency (Sūduva 7% vs Džiugas 12%) and form (last 5: Sūduva 'lddwl', Džiugas 'wwdww'), the strongest and most reliable signal is Over 1.5; Over 2.5 has only a slight edge, and Over 3.5 remains unlikely.

At half-time a draw is most likely: the home team were level at the break in 100% of matches, the visitors in 83%, with average first-half goals 0.5 (Sūduva) versus 0.17 (Džiugas). After the break the visitors are the favorites — visitors win percentage 67% versus 50% for the hosts, season average goals scored 1.33 (visitors) vs 1.00 (hosts) and average goals conceded 0.5 (visitors) vs 1.0 (hosts). Average xG is similar (1.37 hosts vs 1.31 visitors), but Džiugas has a better shot conversion 12% versus Sūduva’s 7%, indicating greater efficiency with chances. Additionally the visitors scored 4 goals in minutes 76–90 and 3 goals in minutes 61–75, and their second-half wins reach 83% versus 50% for the hosts, so the most probable outcome is a draw at half-time and a visitors’ win at full-time.