Sūduva vs Panevėžys: match statistics
Sūduva vs Panevėžys: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Sūduva played Panevėžys in A Lyga (Lithuania). The match was played on 25 April 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Sūduva: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. Panevėžys: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Sūduva scores 1.33 and concedes 0.67 goals per match. Panevėžys scores 0.89 and concedes 1.67. League average: 2.33 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Sūduva 33%, Panevėžys 56%. Over 2.5: Sūduva 33%, Panevėžys 56%. League level: BTTS 42%, Over 2.5 44%.
xG, shots and style
Sūduva has higher xG: 1.49 vs 1.17. Sūduva: 12.7 shots per match, Panevėžys: 9.8.
Match halves
Sūduva: half-time lead 22%, second-half goals 0.89. Panevėžys: half-time lead 44%, second-half goals 0.11.
Goals by minute
Sūduva: 76-90+ (4 goals). Panevėžys: 16-30 (3 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
A Lyga: 2.33 goals per match, BTTS 42%, Over 2.5 44%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 5 previous H2H matches were available: 1-3-1. Average goals 1.40, BTTS 40%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Sūduva is the clear favorite in this fixture: at home they average 2.0 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded per game, with an 80% clean sheet rate and 60% home win rate, whereas Panevėžys average 1.0 goals scored and 2.4 conceded on the road. In terms of chance quality the hosts generate 1.56 xG at home and average 12.6 shots (4.4 on target) with a 16% conversion rate, while the visitors have 1.03 xG away, 8.2 shots (3.4 on target) and a 12% conversion. In the last 5 matches Sūduva scored 10 goals (record 2-2-1, PPG 1.6), whereas Panevėžys have 6 goals in their last 5 (3-0-2, PPG 1.8), but the visitors suffer 60% defeats away and only 20% clean sheets. The defensive gap is decisive: Sūduva concede 1.27 xG against at home and an average of 0.4 goals conceded, while Panevėžys register 2.07 xG against and 2.4 goals conceded on the road, indicating a high probability the hosts will capitalize on their chances. Considering these figures, the hosts’ superiority in chance creation and home defensive stability, I predict a Sūduva victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I back BTTS - Yes at 62% vs 38% because the statistical signals point to a higher probability of goals from both sides. Core argument is seasonal BTTS rates: Sūduva 50% and Panevėžys 60%, and in the last 5 matches both teams have 60% BTTS, giving a strong, current signal. Panevėžys concedes on average 2.4 goals per season (xG against 2.07), while Sūduva in the last 5 matches scores on average 2.0 goals with xG_for 1.66, so the home side has a realistic chance to find the net. Panevėžys averages 1.0 goal per season (xG_for 1.03) and with a low clean sheet expected rate of 20% will likely breach Sūduva’s goalkeeping, who have 25% clean sheets. Additionally, Panevėžys’s high share of matches over 2.5 goals (80%) and 60% of matches being both over 2.5 and BTTS for this team reinforce the both-teams-to-score scenario, therefore I pick "yes".
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I expect around 2.96 goals in the match: Sūduva 1.73 and Panevėžys 1.23 (calculated as the average of team xG attack and opponent xG defense: (1.38+2.07)/2 and (1.03+1.43)/2). From the Poisson distribution for a total of 2.96, the probabilities are: Over 1.5 ≈80% (just over 79%), Over 2.5 ≈57% and Over 3.5 ≈34%. Season data support the over: Panevėžys concedes on average 2.4 goals per match and has 80% of matches over 2.5, while both teams have 60% of their last 5 matches with over 2.5 goals. Sūduva scores 0.75 goals per game seasonally with xG 1.38 and averages 2.0 goals in the last 5 matches, whereas Panevėžys has 8 scored and 15 conceded goals this season, which increases the likelihood of goals. For these reasons the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (over), representing the best line to play.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
At half-time Sūduva averages 0.75 goals scored and 0.25 conceded and records a clean sheet at half in 75% of matches, while Panevėžys averages 0.8 scored and 1.0 conceded with only 40% half-time clean sheets. Historically the hosts led at the break in 50% of fixtures, whereas in the last five matches the visitors led at the break in 60%, creating a moderate contrast between seasonal data and current form. In the second half Sūduva averages 12.0 shots and 1.38 xG versus Panevėžys’s 8.2 shots and 1.03 xG, and the visitors concede on average 2.4 goals per game and 1.4 after the interval, so the hosts’ greater chances favor maintaining a lead. For these reasons the strongest signal is HT/FT 1/1, although I assign some probability to draws and a potential turnaround given Panevėžys’s form (60% wins in the last five).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Sūduva | Panevėžys | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Panevėžys is 13% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / match - Sūduva · 1.8 pts / match - Panevėžys
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Sūduva is 49% better for: goals scored per match.
1.33 goals / match - Sūduva · 0.89 goals / match - Panevėžys
Sūduva is 149% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.67 goals / match - Sūduva · 1.67 goals / match - Panevėžys
Sūduva scores in 56% of matches (5 of 9 matches), while Panevėžys keeps a clean sheet in 22% (2 of 9 matches).
Panevėžys scores in 67% of matches (6 of 9 matches), while Sūduva keeps a clean sheet in 56% (5 of 9 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Sūduva
Over / Under - Panevėžys
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Panevėžys is 46% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.22 pts / match - Sūduva · 1.78 pts / match - Panevėžys
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Sūduva - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 22% of matches and wins 33%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Panevėžys - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 44% of matches and wins 33%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +3 | -3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (4 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (3 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Sūduva
Panevėžys
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (A Lyga).
Teams vs league
| Sūduva | Liga | Panevėžys | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.00 | 2.33 | ▲ 2.56 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 33% | 42% | ▲ 56% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 33% | 44% | ▲ 56% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 56% | 38% | ▼ 22% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 56% | 64% | ▲ 67% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 56% | 69% | ▼ 67% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (5): Sūduva 1 - 3 - 1 Panevėžys. Average goals 1.40, both teams scored in 40% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Sūduva vs Panevėžys?
The A Lyga match finished Sūduva 1:0 Panevėžys. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Sūduva and Panevėžys?
In the last 5 head-to-head matches Sūduva won 1, Panevėžys won 1 and 3 ended level. These games averaged 1.40 goals, with both teams scoring in 40% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Sūduva vs Panevėžys?
Sūduva score 1.33 goals per game on average and Panevėžys 0.89. The A Lyga average is 2.33 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 44% of games. Both teams score in 33% of Sūduva's matches and 56% of Panevėžys's.
What form are Sūduva and Panevėžys in?
Over the last 5 games Sūduva have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Panevėžys 3-0-2 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Sūduva vs Panevėžys?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.