Sukhothai vs Buriram United: match statistics

Buriram United have the better record over their last five matches, collecting 7 points from 2 wins and 1 draw, while Sukhothai have managed just 4 points after 1 win and 1 draw. The visitors have also been more clinical, scoring 8 goals during this period—an average of 1.6 per match—compared with Sukhothai’s 5 goals, or 1.0 per game. However, neither defence has been particularly stable, with Buriram conceding 7 goals and the hosts 6 across their five matches, increasing the likelihood of Sukhothai finding the net at home. The hosts have lost 3 of their last 5 matches, and their “ldllw” sequence highlights greater inconsistency than Buriram’s form, which ends with two consecutive victories. The visitors’ attacking edge and superior points tally support a Buriram United win, albeit with a risk of conceding.

The signal from the last five matches involving both teams is cautious for BTTS: both Sukhothai and Buriram saw both teams score in only 40% of their games. During this period, Sukhothai averaged 1.0 goal, while its xG stood at 1.41, which does not provide strong confirmation of consistent scoring against an opponent with 1.13 xG conceded. Buriram should create chances, having generated an average of 2.00 xG, while Sukhothai allowed opponents 1.51 xG. At the same time, the hosts have lost 3 of their last 5 matches, and the combination of their moderate attacking output with both BTTS indicators at 40% slightly favours the scenario in which at least one team fails to score — BTTS No.

Sukhothai’s last five matches produced an average of 2.2 total goals, with the team scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.2 goals per game. Buriram played slightly more openly over the same period, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, although only 3 of their 5 matches went over 2.5 goals. Sukhothai recorded Over 2.5 in 40% of their recent matches, while Buriram’s rate stands at 60%, suggesting a result around two or three goals rather than a high-scoring game. Buriram’s advantage in chance creation is reflected in their xG of 2.00 compared with the hosts’ 1.41, but their defence allows just 1.13 xG on average, making Under 3.5 the clearest option.

Sukhothai led at the break in 60% of their last five matches, scoring an average of 0.6 goals before half-time and conceding just 0.2, which clearly supports the scenario of a home lead at half-time. Buriram United, meanwhile, have struggled to open matches: they were trailing at half-time in 40% of these games, scoring an average of 0.4 goals and conceding 0.8. After the break, the balance shifts decisively, as Sukhothai score just 0.4 goals and allow opponents 1.0, while Buriram average 1.2 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded. The visitors won the second half in 60% of their recent matches and averaged 2.0 points per game in those periods, compared with 0.6 for the hosts. Despite their weaker start, Buriram therefore show the stronger signal for a second-half turnaround, making Sukhothai/Buriram United the most likely HT/FT outcome: Sukhothai to lead at the break and Buriram United to win the match.