Sumqayıt vs Araz: match statistics

Sumqayıt holds a slight edge based on recent form and underlying metrics: the hosts over the last 5 matches have 2 wins and 3 losses, scoring 6 and conceding 7, averaging 1.2 points per match. Araz in the same period has not won (0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses), scoring only 4 and conceding 11, averaging 0.2 points per match. At home Sumqayıt averages 1.36 goals scored and 1.64 conceded with offensive xG 1.33 and xG against 1.46, while Araz away averages 1.4 scored and 1.93 conceded with xG 1.03 and xG against 1.59. Sumqayıt attempts 10 shots per match (3.43 on target) with a 14% conversion, Araz has 7.73 shots (3.2 on target) with an 18% conversion; despite that the visitors conceded 11 goals in their last five matches and have only 20% clean sheets away compared to the hosts’ 29%. Considering the superior home xG (1.33 vs 1.03), the visitors’ poorer form and defence, I tip a Sumqayıt win; estimated probabilities are 55% home, 25% draw and 20% Araz.

I rate BTTS - Yes as more likely because Araz has a seasonal BTTS rate of 73% versus Sumqayıt's 40%, and in the last 5 matches both teams have BTTS at 60%. Araz concedes 1.93 goals per game on the season (2.2 in the last 5), while Sumqayıt concedes 1.6 goals per game on the season (1.4 in the last 5), indicating both teams regularly allow opponents to score. Sumqayıt generates xG 1.36 and 10.6 shots per game; Araz has xG 1.03 and 7.73 shots with a higher conversion rate of 18% versus the home side's 11%, which increases the chance that the visitors will score despite fewer attempts. Additionally, clean sheets occur in only 27% of home matches and 20% of away matches (i.e. 73% and 80% of games with goals conceded respectively), and the league average goals is 2.56, so goals are frequent. Based on this I assess the probability of BTTS at 72% versus 28% for No Goal.

Based on xG and defensive data, I estimate Sumqayıt to score about 1.48 goals (xG_for 1.36 vs Araz defense xG_against 1.59) and Araz about 1.28 goals (xG_for 1.03 vs Sumqayıt defense xG_against 1.52), totaling ≈2.76 goals. Seasonally, the share of matches over 1.5 goals is 80% for Sumqayıt and 93% for Araz (average 86.5%); both teams have 100% of matches over 0.5 goals and only 27%/20% clean sheets, so I assign an 88% chance for Over 1.5. At the 2.5 line, season rates are 53% (Sumqayıt) and 60% (Araz); additionally, Over 2.5 occurred in 60% of the last 5 matches, and shot and conversion stats (10.6 shots and 11% for Sumqayıt, 7.73 shots and 18% for Araz) yield about 2.56 expected goals from conversion, so I assess Over 2.5 at ~62%. The 3.5 line is less likely: seasonally Over 3.5 is 27% and 40% (avg 33.5%), and the expected total of 2.76 is clearly below 3.5, so I treat Over 3.5 as a 31% probability. Therefore I recommend backing Over 1.5 as the strongest signal given the 80%/93% seasonal indicators, low clean sheet rates of 27% and 20%, and no 0-0 matches (Over 0.5 = 100%).

Sumqayıt led at the break in 6 of 15 matches (40%) and averages 0.67 goals by half-time versus Araz’s 0.4, so the home side hold an advantage in the first 45 minutes. Additionally, Sumqayıt has the higher xG: 1.36 versus 1.03, and averages 10.6 shots compared to Araz’s 7.73, which translates into 47% home wins versus 33% away wins this season. Araz frequently scores after the break — averaging 1.0 second-half goal and recording at least one post-break goal in 100% of their matches — so there is a risk of a turnaround (scenarios 1/2 or X/2). In the last five matches Sumqayıt have two wins (40%, form: llwwl), while Araz have not won in their last five (0% wins, 80% defeats), further favouring the home side for the final result. Considering the advantage in xG, shot volume and more frequent leads at the break, the most logical and strongest play is 1/1 (HT/FT: home/home).