Sunderland vs Fulham: match statistics

Sunderland have a slight edge in recent form: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches and averaged 1.2 more points than Fulham over that period (1.8 versus 1.4). The hosts scored 6 goals during this run, but their defence has looked more solid, conceding just 4 goals compared with Fulham’s 7. Fulham have shown greater attacking efficiency, scoring 9 goals in five matches, but they have also suffered 2 defeats and extended their unbeaten run beyond one match only once. Both teams began the season with defeats, although Sunderland lost 1:2 and Fulham 2:3, which also marginally favours the hosts in terms of current stability. With home advantage and the tighter defence, a narrow Sunderland victory is the most likely outcome.

Sunderland have averaged 1.2 goals scored over their last 5 matches, while Fulham have averaged 1.8, giving both teams a realistic basis for finding the net. During this period, Fulham conceded an average of 1.4 goals, with opponents recording xG of 1.41, while Sunderland, despite having the better defence, allowed their opponents 0.93 xG per match. The latest BTTS rate stands at 40% for Sunderland and 60% for Fulham, while the visitors’ attacking potential is higher, with xG of 1.64 compared to the hosts’ 1.30. Season-long data is very limited, especially for Fulham, so greater weight should be given to their current form over the last five matches. The BTTS - Yes scenario has a slight edge due to both teams’ consistent scoring and Fulham’s defensive vulnerability.

The record from the last five matches indicates moderately high scoring potential: Sunderland averaged 1.2 goals, while Fulham averaged 1.8 goals per game. Fulham conceded 1.4 goals per match during this period, compared with just 0.8 for Sunderland, balancing the projected outputs of both teams at around 1.34 and 1.30 goals. The xG figures also support a scenario with at least two goals, standing at 1.30 for Sunderland and 1.64 for Fulham. Over 2.5 goals landed in 40% of Sunderland’s recent matches and 80% of Fulham’s games, making this line more evenly balanced than the safer Over 1.5. The strongest signal is for Over 1.5, as the expected total of 2.64 goals clearly exceeds the two-goal threshold.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time, as Fulham were level after 45 minutes in 80% of their recent matches, while Sunderland were leading at the break in only 25%. Both teams also show limited attacking output before half-time: Sunderland average 0.5 goals and Fulham 0.6, with their matches averaging 1.25 and 1.4 goals respectively at the break. After half-time, Sunderland’s current form provides stronger grounds for tipping the result in the hosts’ favour: they have won 60% of their last five matches and average 1.8 points per game, compared with Fulham’s 40% win rate and 1.4 points per game. Sunderland concede just 0.25 goals per match after the break and kept a clean sheet in 75% of their recent matches during that period, increasing the likelihood of the hosts scoring the decisive goal without surrendering the lead.