Super Nova vs Auda: match statistics
Super Nova vs Auda: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Super Nova played Auda in Virsliga (Latvia). The match was played on 1 May 2026. Final score: 1:2.
Current form
Super Nova: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. Auda: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Super Nova scores 1.11 and concedes 1.44 goals per match. Auda scores 1.78 and concedes 1.22. League average: 2.83 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Super Nova 67%, Auda 78%. Over 2.5: Super Nova 56%, Auda 67%. League level: BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 50%.
xG, shots and style
Auda has higher xG: 1.60 vs 1.14. Super Nova: 8.6 shots per match, Auda: 13.3.
Match halves
Super Nova: half-time lead 22%, second-half goals 0.56. Auda: half-time lead 56%, second-half goals 0.89.
Goals by minute
Super Nova: 76-90+ (4 goals). Auda: 31-45+ (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Virsliga: 2.83 goals per match, BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 50%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 5 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-4. Average goals 2.40, BTTS 60%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Auda are the favorites: this season they have a record of 6 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses and sit 3rd, while Super Nova have 4 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses and are 5th. In their last 5 matches Auda have scored 10 goals and average 2.0 points per game (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss), whereas Super Nova have scored 4 goals and average 1.2 points per game (2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses). In chance creation Auda average 13.6 shots and 4.8 on target per match, have a conversion rate of 13% and xG 1.57, while Super Nova record 9.33 shots and 3.0 on target, conversion 11% and xG 1.16, giving the visitors a clear quantitative and qualitative advantage. Defensively Auda concede 0.8 goals away with xG against 0.97 and keep clean sheets in 40% of matches, whereas Super Nova concede 2.33 goals at home with xG against 1.85 and have no clean sheets (0%), indicating the hosts’ defensive frailties. Considering superior possession (55% vs 41%), a higher goals-per-game average (1.8 vs 1.0) and a more favorable shots and xG profile, I tip an Auda win and estimate probabilities of Auda win 70%, draw 20% and Super Nova win 10%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I pick BTTS - Yes with an 80% probability vs 20% for No, because the data signals strongly favor both teams scoring. Super Nova has a seasonal BTTS of 100% and scores and concedes 1.75 goals per match on average, while Auda has a seasonal BTTS of 60% and BTTS in the last 5 matches of 100% (last 5: avg 2.0 scored and 1.6 conceded). xG data supports this approach: Super Nova xG_for = 1.65 versus Auda xG_against = 0.97, and Auda xG_for = 1.57 versus Super Nova xG_against = 1.40, which suggests both teams have expected goal values around or above 1.0. Additionally, both sides generate a similar number of shots and shots on target (13.0 vs 13.6 shots, 5.0 vs 4.8 shots on target), increasing the likelihood of an exchange of goals; the only opposing factor is Auda’s 40% clean sheet rate this season, hence reserving 20% for the "No" scenario.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
xG calculations give 1.31 expected goals for Super Nova (1.65 xG for vs 0.97 xG against by Auda) and 1.48 for Auda (1.57 xG for vs 1.40 xG against by Super Nova), totaling 2.79 expected goals. Season figures confirm the offensive profile: Super Nova has 100% of matches over 1.5 goals and 100% over 2.5 goals, Auda has 80% of matches over 1.5 and 40% over 2.5; BTTS is 100% (home) and 60% (away). A Poisson model with lambda=2.79 yields about a 53% chance of Over 2.5 (P≥3 ≈ 53%) and about 31% for Over 3.5, so I rate Over 2.5 moderately high (in my view 58%), while Over 3.5 remains less likely (31%). The strongest signal is Over 1.5 — combining xG=2.79 and season 100%/80% on >1.5 I assign this scenario ~90% probability, therefore I recommend playing Over 1.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Season statistics clearly favor Auda: the visitors have an 80% win rate and average 2.6 points per match versus Super Nova’s 50% win rate and 1.5 points, translating into a tangible advantage in final results. Offenses are comparable (xG 1.57 for Auda vs 1.65 for Super Nova), but Auda’s defense is superior — they concede 0.8 goals per game season-to-date versus the hosts’ 1.75 and have an xG against of 0.97 vs 1.40, meaning they allow fewer high-quality chances. At Half-Time Auda led in 60% of matches (3 instances) and kept a clean sheet at the break in 80% of games; additionally they scored in the 0–15 minute window (1.0 vs 0.0 for Super Nova), which supports the visitors leading at the break. In the second half Auda score on average 1.0 and concede only 0.4, while Super Nova concede on average 1.0 after the break, so the visitors more often maintain or extend their lead; for this reason I select the 2/2 (Auda leading at Half-Time and winning Full-Time) scenario as the most likely.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Super Nova | Auda | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Auda is 67% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Super Nova · 2 pts / match - Auda
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Auda is 60% better for: goals scored per match.
1.11 goals / match - Super Nova · 1.78 goals / match - Auda
Auda is 18% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.44 goals / match - Super Nova · 1.22 goals / match - Auda
Super Nova scores in 89% of matches (8 of 9 matches), while Auda keeps a clean sheet in 22% (2 of 9 matches).
Auda scores in 100% of matches (9 of 9 matches), while Super Nova keeps a clean sheet in 22% (2 of 9 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Super Nova
Over / Under - Auda
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Auda is 89% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1 pts / match - Super Nova · 1.89 pts / match - Auda
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Super Nova - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 22% of matches and wins 44%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Auda - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 56% of matches and wins 67%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -4 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (4 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (5 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Super Nova
Auda
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Virsliga).
Teams vs league
| Super Nova | Liga | Auda | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.56 | 2.83 | ▲ 3.00 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 67% | 59% | ▲ 78% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 56% | 50% | ▲ 67% |
| Clean sheets | • 22% | 21% | • 22% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 67% | 76% | ▲ 89% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 100% | 85% | ▼ 78% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (5): Super Nova 0 - 1 - 4 Auda. Average goals 2.40, both teams scored in 60% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Super Nova vs Auda?
The Virsliga match finished Super Nova 1:2 Auda. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Super Nova and Auda?
In the last 5 head-to-head matches Super Nova won 0, Auda won 4 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.40 goals, with both teams scoring in 60% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Super Nova vs Auda?
Super Nova score 1.11 goals per game on average and Auda 1.78. The Virsliga average is 2.83 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 50% of games. Both teams score in 67% of Super Nova's matches and 78% of Auda's.
What form are Super Nova and Auda in?
Over the last 5 games Super Nova have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Auda 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Super Nova vs Auda?
The statistical background for Super Nova vs Auda — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.