Super Nova vs Liepāja: match statistics
Super Nova vs Liepāja: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Super Nova played Liepāja in Virsliga (Latvia). The match was played on 23 April 2026. Final score: 1:2.
Current form
Super Nova: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match. Liepāja: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Super Nova scores 1.14 and concedes 1.57 goals per match. Liepāja scores 1.00 and concedes 1.29. League average: 2.79 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Super Nova 71%, Liepāja 57%. Over 2.5: Super Nova 57%, Liepāja 43%. League level: BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 49%.
xG, shots and style
Liepāja has higher xG: 1.40 vs 1.22. Super Nova: 9.3 shots per match, Liepāja: 11.4.
Match halves
Super Nova: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 0.43. Liepāja: half-time lead 14%, second-half goals 0.86.
Goals by minute
Super Nova: 16-30 (3 goals). Liepāja: 76-90+ (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Virsliga: 2.79 goals per match, BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 49%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 4 previous H2H matches were available: 2-1-1. Average goals 3.50, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Liepāja’s strengths are evident in chance quality and game control: away xG averages 1.67 versus the hosts’ 1.26 home xG, and the visitors average 14.33 shots per game with 4.33 on target, compared to Super Nova’s 10.5 shots and 4 on target. Defensively Liepāja also performs better — conceding 1.33 goals on average away with an xG against of 1.24, while Super Nova concede as many as 2.5 goals per home game with an xG against of 1.85 and 0% clean sheets. Short-term form, however, favors the hosts, who have won 3 of their last 5 matches and scored 6 while conceding 8 in that period, which shows their offensive potential but also defensive instability. The visitors have a lower shot conversion rate (approx. 7% vs 10% for the hosts), which limits their advantage, but the 65% possession versus 39% and superior xG speak in their favor. Therefore I forecast a Liepāja win, while acknowledging a moderate risk of a draw due to Super Nova’s poor defense.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Super Nova has a season BTTS of 75% versus Liepāja’s 33%, while the league average BTTS is 62%, which provides a clear signal in favor of Goal/Goal. In the last 5 matches both teams have a BTTS of 60% and have been conceding on average 1.6 (Super Nova) and 1.4 (Liepāja) goals, so both sides regularly allow goals. Liepāja has a higher xG of 1.67 versus Super Nova’s 1.19 and attempts more shots 14.33 vs 9.25 (4.33 vs 3.5 on target), which increases the away side’s scoring probability. Super Nova has 0% clean sheets this season while Liepāja has 33%, so the home side rarely keeps a clean sheet, supporting the BTTS scenario. Considering the home BTTS of 75%, the 60% last-5 BTTS for both, and the league 62%, I project BTTS - Yes with a probability of 70%.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Both teams average 1.0 goal per game this season (Super Nova 1.0, Liepāja 1.0), but xG indicates higher attacking potential for the visitors: home xG 1.19 vs away xG 1.67, with xG against 1.31 (home) and 1.24 (away). Based on this I expect about 1.22 goals for Super Nova and 1.49 for Liepāja, totaling roughly 2.71 goals. Season percentages for over 1.5 are 75% for Super Nova and 67% for Liepāja, and a Poisson distribution for a 2.71 mean yields ~75% probability for over 1.5, making the 1.5 line the strongest signal. I rate Over 2.5 as marginal — Poisson suggests about a 51% chance of ≥3 goals, while season Over 2.5 rates are 50%/33%; Over 3.5 is unlikely (~29%), especially given the home side have 0% of matches above 3.5 this season.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Super Nova led at the break in 2 of their last 5 matches (40%), while Liepāja did not lead at half-time in any of those 5 fixtures (0%); hosts averaged 1.0 goals by the break versus 0.0 for visitors — this increases the likelihood of the home side holding a lead at half-time. However, Liepāja clearly dominate after the interval: visitors’ xG is 1.67 versus 1.19 for the hosts, second-half goals average 1.6 for Liepāja against 1.2 for Super Nova, and the visitors average 14.33 shots per game compared to 9.25. Additionally, in the last 5 matches the visitors won the second half in 60% of cases while the hosts did so in only 20%, which raises the probability of a turnaround after half-time. Considering the higher xG and shooting activity of the visitors combined with the hosts’ early efficiency (shot conversion 11% vs 7%), the strongest HT/FT signal is 1/2 (hosts lead at half-time, Liepāja win full-time).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Super Nova | Liepāja | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 42% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Super Nova is 80% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / match - Super Nova · 1 pts / match - Liepāja
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Super Nova is 14% better for: goals scored per match.
1.14 goals / match - Super Nova · 1 goals / match - Liepāja
Liepāja is 22% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.57 goals / match - Super Nova · 1.29 goals / match - Liepāja
Super Nova scores in 86% of matches (6 of 7 matches), while Liepāja keeps a clean sheet in 14% (1 of 7 matches).
Liepāja scores in 71% of matches (5 of 7 matches), while Super Nova keeps a clean sheet in 14% (1 of 7 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Super Nova
Over / Under - Liepāja
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Super Nova is 100% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.14 pts / match - Super Nova · 0.57 pts / match - Liepāja
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Super Nova - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 43%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Liepāja - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 14% of matches and wins 29%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 40% |
| No goal | 100% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -4 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (3 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (4 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Super Nova
Liepāja
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Virsliga).
Teams vs league
| Super Nova | Liga | Liepāja | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.71 | 2.79 | ▼ 2.29 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 71% | 59% | ▼ 57% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 57% | 49% | ▼ 43% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 14% | 21% | ▼ 14% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 71% | 77% | ▲ 86% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 100% | 85% | • 86% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (4): Super Nova 2 - 1 - 1 Liepāja. Average goals 3.50, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Super Nova vs Liepāja?
The Virsliga match finished Super Nova 1:2 Liepāja. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Super Nova and Liepāja?
In the last 4 head-to-head matches Super Nova won 2, Liepāja won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 3.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Super Nova vs Liepāja?
Super Nova score 1.14 goals per game on average and Liepāja 1.00. The Virsliga average is 2.79 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 49% of games. Both teams score in 71% of Super Nova's matches and 57% of Liepāja's.
What form are Super Nova and Liepāja in?
Over the last 5 games Super Nova have a 3-0-2 record (1.80 points per game) and Liepāja 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Super Nova vs Liepāja?
The statistical background for Super Nova vs Liepāja — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.