Super Nova vs Riga: match statistics
Super Nova vs Riga: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Super Nova played Riga in Virsliga (Latvia). The match was played on 14 April 2026. Final score: 1:4.
Current form
Super Nova: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Riga: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Super Nova scores 1.40 and concedes 1.00 goals per match. Riga scores 3.60 and concedes 1.60. League average: 2.76 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Super Nova 80%, Riga 80%. Over 2.5: Super Nova 60%, Riga 100%. League level: BTTS 62%, Over 2.5 48%.
xG, shots and style
Riga has higher xG: 2.06 vs 1.41. Super Nova: 11.0 shots per match, Riga: 17.6.
Match halves
Super Nova: half-time lead 40%, second-half goals 0.60. Riga: half-time lead 60%, second-half goals 2.20.
Goals by minute
Super Nova: 16-30 (3 goals). Riga: 76-90+ (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Virsliga: 2.76 goals per match, BTTS 62%, Over 2.5 48%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 4 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-4. Average goals 4.50, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict an away win (Riga): their offensive superiority is substantial — Riga have scored 18 goals this season and 18 in the last 5 matches, translating to an average of 3.67 goals per away game, while Super Nova have 7 goals this season and average 1.00 goal per home match. Quality of chances favors the visitors: Riga’s average xG on the road is 1.86 versus Super Nova’s 1.65 xG at home, and the visitors’ shot conversion rate is 23% compared to the hosts’ 7%. Riga average 6.33 shots on target and 15.67 attempts away versus Super Nova’s 5 on target and 14 attempts at home, and additionally Riga register 64% possession versus the hosts’ 48%, indicating game control and more opportunities. Defensively both teams concede around 1 goal per game (Super Nova 1.00 at home, Riga 1.00 away), but Super Nova have 0% clean sheets and 0% home wins in their home stats, while Riga have 33% clean sheets and 67% away wins, which favors the visitors. Considering the visitors’ 3.67 goals per away game, 23% conversion and 64% possession versus the hosts’ 1.00 goals and 7% conversion, I assess the probabilities as 65% for Riga, 20% for a draw and 15% for Super Nova.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams show high scoring potential: Super Nova averages 3.5 goals per game, Riga 3.67, while Super Nova concedes 2.5 and Riga 1.0, indicating a high-goal fixture. BTTS indicators strongly favor both teams — Super Nova has a seasonal BTTS of 100%, Riga 67%, and in the last 5 matches both teams have 80% BTTS, delivering a repeatable signal. Chance-creation data corroborates this: home xG 2.36 vs. away 1.86, hosts average 20.5 shots and 6.5 on target, visitors 15.67 shots and 6.33 on target, so both sides generate scoring opportunities. Additionally, both teams have 100% of matches over 2.5 goals this season (league average 2.78), although Riga’s 33% clean sheets only partially mitigate the probability. Considering the hosts’ 100% BTTS, 80% in the last 5 matches, and strong xG/shots for both teams, I predict BTTS - Yes with 82% vs 18% for No.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG model gives Super Nova an expected 1.85 goals (xG for 2.36 vs opponents xG-against 1.33). Riga’s expected goals are around 1.36 (xG for 1.86 vs Super Nova xG-against 0.86), yielding a combined forecast of ≈3.21 goals for the match. Seasonal metrics confirm an offensive profile: Super Nova averages 3.5 goals per game, Riga 3.67, both teams have 100% of matches over 2.5 goals, and the home side has 100% of matches over 3.5 (opponents 33%). Super Nova averages 20.5 shots with a 17% conversion (~3.49 “theoretical” goals), Riga 15.67 shots at 23% (~3.60). The percentage of matches where both teams score is 100% (home) and 67% (away). Consequently the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (recommendation): projected xG 3.21 and seasonal 100% of matches >1.5 support a very high probability of Over 1.5 (~95%). Over 2.5 is also strong (~78%), while Over 3.5 is less certain (~45%), therefore I pick the over on the 1.5 line.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
First-half statistics clearly favor the hosts: Super Nova led at the break in 2 of 2 home matches (100%) and average 2.0 goals in the first half versus Riga’s 1.0; overall hosts average 2.5 first-half goals. However, initiative shifts to the visitors after the break — Riga score an average of 2.67 goals in second halves and win 67% of second halves, while Super Nova concedes an average of 2.0 goals after halftime. Additionally, Super Nova creates more chances (xG 2.36 and 20.5 shots on average), but Riga are more efficient (xG 1.86 and a 23% conversion rate versus 17%), which facilitates a turnaround. Given the hosts’ 100% leads at half-time and Riga’s dominance in second halves (points gained after the break: 7 for Riga vs 1 for Super Nova), the most likely HT/FT outcome is 1/2.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Super Nova | Riga | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 40% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.32 | 0.56 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Riga is 157% better for: goals scored per match.
1.4 goals / match - Super Nova · 3.6 goals / match - Riga
Super Nova is 60% better for: goals conceded per match.
1 goals / match - Super Nova · 1.6 goals / match - Riga
Super Nova scores in 100% of matches (5 of 5 matches), while Riga keeps a clean sheet in 20% (1 of 5 matches).
Riga scores in 100% of matches (5 of 5 matches), while Super Nova keeps a clean sheet in 20% (1 of 5 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Super Nova
Over / Under - Riga
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Riga is 43% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.4 pts / match - Super Nova · 2 pts / match - Riga
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Super Nova - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 40% of matches and wins 60%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Riga - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 60% of matches and wins 60%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +2 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 3.2 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 0% |
| Goal difference | +4 | +6 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (3 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (6 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Super Nova
Riga
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Virsliga).
Teams vs league
| Super Nova | Liga | Riga | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.40 | 2.76 | ▲ 5.20 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 80% | 62% | ▲ 80% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 60% | 48% | ▲ 100% |
| Clean sheets | • 20% | 19% | • 20% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 80% | 86% | ▲ 100% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 100% | 83% | ▲ 100% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (4): Super Nova 0 - 0 - 4 Riga. Average goals 4.50, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Super Nova vs Riga?
The Virsliga match finished Super Nova 1:4 Riga. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Super Nova and Riga?
In the last 4 head-to-head matches Super Nova won 0, Riga won 4 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 4.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Super Nova vs Riga?
Super Nova score 1.40 goals per game on average and Riga 3.60. The Virsliga average is 2.76 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 48% of games. Both teams score in 80% of Super Nova's matches and 80% of Riga's.
What form are Super Nova and Riga in?
Over the last 5 games Super Nova have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Riga 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Super Nova vs Riga?
The statistical background for Super Nova vs Riga — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.