Super Nova vs Tukums: match statistics
Super Nova vs Tukums: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Super Nova played Tukums in Virsliga (Latvia). The match was played on 11 May 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Super Nova: 1-0-4, 0.60 points/match. Tukums: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Super Nova scores 1.00 and concedes 1.45 goals per match. Tukums scores 2.09 and concedes 1.55. League average: 2.98 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Super Nova 64%, Tukums 91%. Over 2.5: Super Nova 55%, Tukums 73%. League level: BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 52%.
xG, shots and style
Tukums has higher xG: 1.33 vs 1.09. Super Nova: 8.1 shots per match, Tukums: 10.6.
Match halves
Super Nova: half-time lead 18%, second-half goals 0.45. Tukums: half-time lead 36%, second-half goals 1.09.
Goals by minute
Super Nova: 76-90+ (4 goals). Tukums: 76-90+ (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Virsliga: 2.98 goals per match, BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 52%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 5 previous H2H matches were available: 2-2-1. Average goals 2.60, BTTS 80%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back an away win (Tukums). Over the season Tukums scored 23 goals versus Super Nova’s 11, and in the last 5 matches the visitors have 15 goals compared to the hosts’ 3. Tukums’ offensive superiority is supported by numbers: on average 9.5 shots and 3.25 on target per game with a 16% conversion rate, versus Super Nova’s 8.25 shots, 2.75 on target and 12% conversion. Form and points efficiency also favor the visitors — Tukums averages 1.6 points over the last 5 matches while Super Nova averages only 0.6 and has won just once in the last five (goal difference 3:7). Both defenses are vulnerable: the hosts concede 2.25 goals at home on average, the visitors 2.0 away, with similar xG 1.07 (Super Nova) vs 1.15 (Tukums), indicating Tukums creates slightly better chances and converts them more often. Given 0% home wins for Super Nova and a negative goal difference for them (-5 vs -2 for Tukums), I estimate probabilities at 60% for the visitors, 25% for a draw and 15% for the hosts.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The strongest signal is the seasonal BTTS indicators: Super Nova has 86% of matches with both teams scoring, while Tukums has 100% seasonal BTTS, compared to a league average of 57%. Tukums scored 15 goals in the last 5 matches (3.0 per match) and has 80% BTTS in the last 5, whereas Super Nova scored only 3 goals in the last 5 (0.6 per match) and their recent BTTS is 40%, which reduces confidence that the home side will score regularly. Seasonal goals averages show Super Nova at home scoring 2.43 and conceding 1.29, and Tukums away scoring 1.50 and conceding 2.00 — a combined 3.93 goals by seasonal averages, which supports goals on both sides. Seasonal xG are 1.44 (Super Nova) and 1.15 (Tukums) for attack, and 1.54 and 1.80 for defenses, and additionally Over 2.5 stands at 71% and 75%; low clean sheet percentages 14% and 0% also argue for BTTS. Considering the dominant seasonal BTTS 86%/100%, high Over 2.5 (71%/75%) and Tukums’s recent scoring form (15 goals in 5 matches), I recommend BTTS - Yes as the more likely outcome.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Home xG is 1.44 while xG conceded by Tukums is 1.80 — this averages to 1.62 expected goals for Super Nova; on the other side Tukums xG is 1.15 and xG conceded by Super Nova is 1.54 giving 1.35, totaling 2.97 expected goals. Both teams have 100% of season matches over 1.5 goals, and the league average goals is 3.04, which strongly supports Over 1.5. Season rates for Over 2.5 are 71% for the home side and 75% for the away side (average 73%), and BTTS is 86% for Super Nova and 100% for Tukums, increasing the likelihood of more than 2.5 goals. Additionally, Tukums scored 15 goals in the last 5 matches (3.0 per match), while Super Nova has only 3 goals in the last 5 (0.6); shots on target 5.29 vs 3.25 and conversion rates 22% vs 16% indicate a realistic scoring potential. Based on this, the best line to play is Over 2.5 — expected 2.97 goals and the seasonal 73% Over 2.5 provide the strongest data-driven signal.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
I predict 1/1 as the most likely HT/FT scenario. Super Nova led at the break in 3 matches (43% of seasonal fixtures) and on average scores 1.0 goals by half-time while conceding only 0.57, whereas Tukums also averages 1.0 HT goal but concedes 1.25 by the break. Additionally, Super Nova has a higher xG (1.44 vs 1.15) and more shots on target per match (5.29 vs 3.25), and collected 11 points at the break compared to the visitors’ 4 points, which gives them an advantage in controlling the match. Tukums has not recorded an away win this season (winPercentage_away = 0.0), so the likelihood of a turnaround after the break is low; for these reasons the strongest signal from the data is a home lead at the break and a home win at full-time (1/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Super Nova | Tukums | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 43% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.46 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Tukums is 167% better for: last-5 form.
0.6 pts / match - Super Nova · 1.6 pts / match - Tukums
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Tukums is 109% better for: goals scored per match.
1 goals / match - Super Nova · 2.09 goals / match - Tukums
Super Nova is 7% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.45 goals / match - Super Nova · 1.55 goals / match - Tukums
Super Nova scores in 82% of matches (9 of 11 matches), while Tukums keeps a clean sheet in 9% (1 of 11 matches).
Tukums scores in 100% of matches (11 of 11 matches), while Super Nova keeps a clean sheet in 18% (2 of 11 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Super Nova
Over / Under - Tukums
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Tukums is 36% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1 pts / match - Super Nova · 1.36 pts / match - Tukums
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Super Nova - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 18% of matches and wins 36%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Tukums - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 36% of matches and wins 18%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 2.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +5 | +4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (4 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +6 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Super Nova
Tukums
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Virsliga).
Teams vs league
| Super Nova | Liga | Tukums | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.45 | 2.98 | ▲ 3.64 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 64% | 57% | ▲ 91% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 55% | 52% | ▲ 73% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 18% | 22% | ▼ 9% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 64% | 73% | ▲ 91% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 100% | 86% | ▼ 82% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (5): Super Nova 2 - 2 - 1 Tukums. Average goals 2.60, both teams scored in 80% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Super Nova vs Tukums?
The Virsliga match finished Super Nova 1:1 Tukums. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Super Nova and Tukums?
In the last 5 head-to-head matches Super Nova won 2, Tukums won 1 and 2 ended level. These games averaged 2.60 goals, with both teams scoring in 80% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Super Nova vs Tukums?
Super Nova score 1.00 goals per game on average and Tukums 2.09. The Virsliga average is 2.98 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 52% of games. Both teams score in 64% of Super Nova's matches and 91% of Tukums's.
What form are Super Nova and Tukums in?
Over the last 5 games Super Nova have a 1-0-4 record (0.60 points per game) and Tukums 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Super Nova vs Tukums?
The statistical background for Super Nova vs Tukums — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.