Supra du Québec vs Cavalry FC: match statistics

I back the home win (1). Supra du Québec averages 2.29 xG at home and attempts 22 shots per match (7 on target), while Cavalry away posts 1.24 xG and 11 shots with 3.5 on target, giving Supra a clear advantage in chance creation. Despite that, Supra has lower finishing efficiency (5% vs 9% for Cavalry) and both teams score on average 1.0 goals per match, so the game may be low-scoring. Defensively Cavalry are solid on the road (0.5 goals conceded on average and 50% clean sheets), whereas Supra concedes 1.0 goal at home, but the average xG against Supra at home is only 0.74, suggesting a well-organized defense. Considering Supra’s greater quantity and quality of created chances and better points-per-game form at home over the last five matches (2.0 PPG vs Cavalry’s 1.6 PPG), I give a slight edge to the hosts.

Supra du Québec has a seasonal BTTS rate of 100% and 67% in the last 5 matches, while Cavalry FC has 50% on the season but as much as 80% in the last 5 games, which strongly points to both teams scoring. Supra averages 2.0 goals per match with xG 1.81 and registers 6.0 shots on target, while Cavalry averages 1.0 goal with xG 1.24 and 3.5 shots on target — both sides create chances (xG 1.81 vs 1.24, 6.0 vs 3.5 shots on target). The home side has kept no clean sheets this season (0%), and the visitors have 50% clean sheets, but in the last 5 matches Cavalry concedes an average of 1.0 goal, so the visitors’ defense has been less secure recently. Considering Supra’s 100% BTTS, the visitors’ 80% BTTS in the last 5, the league average BTTS of 56% and the home offensive advantage (2.0 vs 1.0 goals and xG 1.81 vs 1.24), I estimate BTTS probability at 85% vs 15% and back 'BTTS - Yes'.

Calculations based on xG and defensive metrics point to a multi-goal match: home team (Supra du Québec) has xG_for 1.81 and the visitors’ xG_against is 1.36, yielding an expected xG for Supra ≈1.59; visitors (Cavalry FC) have xG_for 1.24 against the home xG_against 1.20, i.e. ≈1.22, combined ≈2.81 goals. Supra averages 16 shots and 6 on target with a 13% conversion rate, while Cavalry averages 11 shots and 3.5 on target with a 9% conversion — this increases the likelihood of the hosts converting chances. Historical indicators confirm this picture: Supra has 100% of matches with over 1.5 goals and 100% BTTS this season, and in the last 5 matches Over2.5 occurred in 67% for the hosts and 60% for the visitors. Compared to the league average of 2.44 goals, the projected 2.81 is noticeably higher, translating to a very strong signal for Over 1.5 and a moderate signal for Over 2.5; Over3.5 remains unlikely. Therefore I recommend a bet on Over 1.5 as the best choice; Over2.5 can be considered as a lower-value option.

Supra du Québec has a clear advantage in the first half: they average 1.5 goals by half-time versus 0.5 for Cavalry, and the average half-time goals is 2.0 for the home side compared to 0.5 for the visitors. This is supported by the home xG of 1.81 versus 1.24 for the away team and a superiority in shots on target 6.0 vs 3.5, which increases the likelihood of taking a lead by the break. In the last 5 matches Supra won 67% of games (3 of 5) with an average of 2.0 points per game, while Cavalry has a 40% win rate and averages 1.6 points in their last 5, which favors maintaining the advantage. Additionally, Supra have 100% of home matches with both teams scoring (season BTTS percentage_home = 100%), while Cavalry kept a clean sheet in 50% of away matches (season CS percentage_away = 50%), so the most likely outcome is the home side leading at half-time and winning at full-time; therefore the 1/1 scenario receives the highest probability at 40%.