Supra du Québec vs Forge FC: match statistics

Forge FC holds a clear advantage in the table and underlying metrics: they sit 1st with a record of 9-1-1 and a goal difference of 18:6, while CS Supra du Québec are 6th at 3-2-4 and 13:14. In the last 5 matches Forge scored 10 goals and averages 2.4 pts per game (4 wins), whereas Supra scored 8 goals and averages 1.0 pt per game, indicating a form advantage for the visitors. The efficiency gap is significant: Forge away averages 2.0 goals with a conversion rate of 14% and 5.2 shots on target, while Supra at home average 1.2 goals with only 7% conversion and 5.0 shots on target. Defensively Supra restricts opponents to 0.91 xG at home, and Forge concedes 1.27 xG away, yet in practice Forge concedes only 0.8 goals per away match versus Supra’s 1.0 at home. Therefore I forecast a Forge (2) win with 65% probability, draw 20% and home win 15% — the decisive factors are superior shot conversion and the fact Forge have no away matches without scoring (0%) compared to 40% of Supra’s home games where they failed to score.

In the last 5 home matches Supra had BTTS in 80% of fixtures, while Forge had BTTS in 60% of their last 5, providing a strong recency signal in favor of both teams scoring. Offensive metrics show both sides create chances: Supra has xG 1.48, 13.17 shots and 4.17 shots on target per match, and Forge has xG 1.79, 14.4 shots and 5.2 shots on target; combined with average defensive numbers (xG_against_home 0.83 and xG_against_away 1.27) this indicates a realistic likelihood of goals from both teams. Season-long statistics for Supra are defensive (clean sheet in 83% of matches and an average of 0.33 goals conceded per season), but that picture is shifted by form — in the last 5 matches they conceded an average of 1.8 goals and scored 1.6, which explains the BTTS rise to 80% in that period. Forge averages 2.0 goals per match this season and 18 goals in the season with a conversion rate of 14%, and their seasonal BTTS is 60%; together with a recent run of 4 wins (form 'lwwww') this gives a high probability they will score. Considering 80% vs 60% in the last 5, the league average BTTS of 60%, and relatively high xG (1.48 and 1.79) vs xG_against (0.83 and 1.27), I assess the probability of BTTS at 72% vs 28% and recommend a 'BTTS - Yes' bet.

A model combining xG and goals-per-game projects 1.38 xG for Supra du Québec and 1.31 xG for Forge FC, totaling 2.69 expected goals. Forge FC clearly has the stronger attack: on average 2.00 goals scored per match and xG 1.79 versus the home side’s 1.33 goals and xG 1.48; they also register more shots (14.4 vs 13.17) and a higher conversion rate (14% vs 10%). Supra du Québec, however, boasts a very strong home defense — conceding just 0.33 goals per match on average and keeping clean sheets in 83% of their games — which lowers the probability of an extremely high-scoring outcome. Considering the combined expected 2.69 goals (league average 2.83) and season Over 1.5 rates: 33% for the home team and 60% for the away team, the strongest play signal is Over 1.5; Over 2.5 has moderate chances (~62%), while Over 3.5 is unlikely (~22%).

I expect a Half-Time draw and an away win at Full-Time (X/2). The home side averages 0.17 goals by the break, while Forge FC averages 0.6, and draws at Half-Time occur frequently: 67% for the hosts and 60% for the visitors (approximately 63% on average), so a lead at the break is most likely to be a draw. After the break the situation favors the visitors – Forge FC scores on average 1.4 goals in the second half and have goals after the break in 100% of matches, while the hosts have conceded on average 1.4 goals after the break in their last 5 fixtures, which supports a turnaround. Additionally, the visitors’ xG is 1.79 versus 1.48 for the hosts, and seasonal goals averages are 2.0 (visitors) versus 1.33 (hosts), confirming Forge FC’s offensive advantage and justifying the X/2 selection.