Supra du Québec vs HFX Wanderers FC: match statistics

I predict an away win (2). HFX Wanderers sit 3rd, have 5 goals this season and average 1.5 goals per away game with 0% shutouts, while CS Supra de Québec have 3 goals this season, sit 5th, but average 0 goals per home game with a 100% loss rate and 0% wins. Supra generate a high volume of chances — at home they average 2.49 xG, 22 shots and 10 shots on target per match — but have a 0% conversion rate and FTS 100%, indicating extreme inefficiency. The visitors are markedly more efficient: away they have 0.71 xG, a 17% conversion rate and 50% clean sheets, and have scored 7 goals in the last 5 matches versus Supra’s 3, confirming their consistency in finding the net. Considering Supra’s qualitative chance advantage but lack of end product, versus HFX’s superior finishing and away regularity, I assign a higher probability to an away victory.

Key statistical signals favor BTTS - Supra du Québec posts a season BTTS rate of 100% and season CS 0%, averaging 2.0 scored and 2.0 conceded per match. HFX Wanderers have a season BTTS 50% and CS 50%, averaging 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded, meaning HFX keeps a clean sheet in roughly half of their games, reducing the universality of a both-teams-to-score scenario. Supra dominates chances (15.0 shots and 5.0 SOT vs 9.0 and 3.0 for HFX) and holds recent xG 1.43 versus 0.0 for HFX, so the home side creates more and better opportunities, which raises the opponent’s scoring probability. In the last 5 matches BTTS occurred 50% for the hosts and 60% for HFX, and average goals 1.5 (Supra) and 1.4 (HFX) per game confirm a moderate tendency toward mutual scoring. Considering the hosts’ 100% BTTS, 0% clean sheets, shot advantage (15 vs 9 and 5 vs 3 SOT) and recent form, I price BTTS at 70% vs 30% and recommend a 'BTTS - Yes' bet.

Supra du Québec scores an average of 2.0 goals per home match, while HFX Wanderers score 1.5 away, yielding a straightforward combined expected goals total of 3.5. This is supported by shots and conversion: Supra averages 15.0 shots with a 13% conversion (≈1.95 goals), HFX 9.0 shots with 17% (≈1.53 goals), so both teams’ attacks have real goal-scoring potential. Seasonal indicators show Supra’s home games are 100% over 2.5 goals and 100% BTTS, while HFX have 50% over 2.5 and 50% BTTS; this reinforces the over signal. Additionally, Supra concedes 2.0 goals at home on average and HFX concedes 1.0 away, so defenses aren’t limiting chances; with an expected 3.5 goals the strongest option is Over 2.5 goals.

I forecast an HT/FT 2/2 (away team leading at the break and winning the match) as the most likely scenario. The primary argument is the away side’s superior form: they average 2.0 points per match versus the home side’s 1.0 and record a 50.0% win rate compared to the home team’s 0.0%. The hosts concede an average of 1.0 goals by half-time and were behind after 45 minutes in 100.0% of their home matches, which increases the likelihood that the away team will hold the lead at the break. Although the home team register more shots (15.0 vs 9.0) and more shots on target (5.0 vs 3.0), the away team have a higher shot efficiency (17.0% vs 13.0) and the hosts concede an average of 2.0 goals per match over the season. Additionally, both teams have scored in 100.0% of the hosts’ home games and the hosts have no clean sheets, therefore the scenario of the away team leading at half-time and securing victory after 90 minutes is the strongest.