Supra du Québec vs York9 FC: match statistics

I back the away win (2): York9 are undefeated this season (3 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses) and have scored 10 goals versus Supra’s 6. Supra average only 0.67 goals per home match and have failed to score in 67% of home games, despite a home xG of 1.82 — a clear finishing issue (conversion 4%). York9 average 1.0 goal per away match, have a 6% conversion rate, 5.33 shots on target and concede only 0.67 away goals with 33% clean sheets, giving them an advantage in both efficiency and defence (Supra concede 1.0 at home and have no clean sheets). Pitch metrics are similar — possession 54% vs 53% and average shots 17.33 (Supra) vs 16 (York9) — however quality and chance conversion favour the visitors; average points per game over the last 5 matches are 1.6 for York9 vs 1.4 for Supra. Considering Supra’s negative home goal difference (-1) and York9’s away consistency (+1), I assign a 55% probability to an away win, 25% to a draw and 20% to a home win.

Both teams have a high season BTTS rate: Supra du Québec 67% and York9 FC 67%, well above the league average of 52%. In the last 5 matches both sides also record BTTS at 60%, confirming the repeatability of this trend. Supra at home averages 2.33 goals scored and concedes 1.0, while York9 away scores 1.0 and concedes 0.67, meaning both teams regularly score and concede. Additionally, over the last 5 matches xG is 1.46 for Supra du Québec and 2.14 for York9, and York9 averages 16.0 shots versus Supra’s 11.67 with conversion rates of 6% vs 20%, which suggests many created chances by York9 and high finishing efficiency from Supra. Considering the season 67% BTTS for both teams, 60% in the last 5 and the advantage in chance creation (xG 1.46 vs 2.14), I tip BTTS - Yes with a 70% probability versus 30% for No.

xG and defensive analysis produce expected goals: home xG 1.39 and xG against York9 1.57 yield expected Supa xG ≈1.48, while York9 xG 1.66 and xG against Supa 1.40 yield expected away xG ≈1.53 — total ≈3.01. This aligns with trends: Supra averages 2.33 goals/match and York9 1.00, both teams have BTTS at 67% and season over 0.5 at 100%, increasing goal likelihood. Using a Poisson model with mean 3.01 gives ~80% probability for Over 1.5 goals, ~58% for Over 2.5 and ~35% for Over 3.5, so the strongest signal is Over 1.5. Additionally, Supra’s conversion rate is high at 20% versus York9’s 6% and the hosts have season Over 2.5 in 67% of matches (York9 0%), which raises the chance of goals from Supa and undermines the credibility of an away under. Considering the statistical edge and the combined forecast of 3.01 goals, I select Over 1.5 as the best bet.

I back 1/1 because Supra du Québec led at the break in 67% of their matches (LeadingAtHTPercentage_home = 67%) and won 67% of games this season (winPercentage_home = 67%), which is the strongest signal for leading at half-time and holding the win. The home side averages 0.67 goals by HT (scoredAVGHT_home = 0.67) and concedes none before the break (concededAVGHT_home = 0.0; seasonCSPercentageHT_home = 100%), so a lead at the break is realistic and stable. Over the full match Supra average 2.33 goals (seasonScoredAVG_home = 2.33) and register 11.67 shots with a 20% conversion rate (shotsAVG_home = 11.67; shot_conversion_rate_home = 20%), while York9 average 16.0 shots but only a 6% conversion (shotsAVG_away = 16.0; shot_conversion_rate_away = 6%), suggesting the visitors’ shot superiority is unlikely to produce a turnaround. xG is 1.39 for Supra versus 1.66 for York9 (xg_for_avg_home = 1.39; xg_for_avg_away = 1.66), yet the home team’s greater efficiency and their half-time stats favor maintaining the lead. Additionally, the away side never led at HT (LeadingAtHT_away = 0), so I assign the highest probability to the 1/1 outcome and practically exclude scenarios with HT = 2.