Sutton United vs Altrincham: match statistics

Sutton United won their only league fixture so far 3:0, but the broader trend is alarming: they have suffered 4 defeats in their last five matches, scoring just 4 goals and conceding 9. Altrincham lost their only match of the season 1:3, but their current form looks significantly stronger, having won 3 of their last 5 games and scored 8 goals during that run. The visitors conceded an average of 1.4 goals per match over this period, compared with Sutton’s 1.8, while Altrincham averaged 1.6 goals scored against 0.8 for the hosts. The difference in recent points returns—1.8 points per game for Altrincham versus 0.6 for Sutton—suggests that the visitors are closer to victory despite playing away.

The strongest argument for BTTS - Yes is Altrincham’s recent form: the team scored in 4 of its last 5 matches, with BTTS landing in 80% of them and an average of 1.6 goals scored. Over the same period, Sutton conceded an average of 1.8 goals, while its average xG against stood at 1.63, which supports the visitors’ scoring potential. The hosts scored just 0.8 goals per match in their last five fixtures and recorded BTTS in only 20% of them, so the risk of them failing to score remains significant. However, Altrincham are not defensively reliable either, conceding an average of 1.4 goals and allowing 1.89 xG to opponents, while Sutton generate 1.07 xG per match. The combination of both teams’ vulnerable defences and the visitors’ high BTTS rate gives a moderate edge to the scenario in which both teams score.

Sutton’s last five matches have produced an average of 2.6 goals, while Altrincham’s games have averaged 3.0 goals, with the 2.5-goal line being surpassed in 80% of matches in both cases. Sutton have conceded an average of 1.8 goals in their last five appearances, whereas Altrincham have scored 1.6 goals per game over the same period, clearly supporting the visitors’ attacking output. Both teams also create solid chances: average xG stands at 1.07 for Sutton and 1.45 for Altrincham, while their opponents allow 1.89 and 1.63 xG respectively. The league is highly goal-oriented, averaging 3.75 goals per match, with 75% of games finishing Over 2.5 goals. The strongest signal remains Over 1.5 goals, as Sutton’s defensive weaknesses combined with Altrincham’s current attacking form produce a high projected total of 2.79 goals.

Altrincham are showing clearly stronger current form: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches, averaging 1.6 goals and 1.8 points per game, while Sutton have recorded just 1 win, 0.8 goals and 0.6 points per game. The visitors are more effective even before half-time, scoring an average of 1.0 goal compared with Sutton’s 0.4, while their half-time goal difference stands at +1, compared with -2 for the hosts. Sutton have conceded an average of 1.8 goals per game in their last five appearances and allow opponents an average of 1.0 goal after the break, which favours Altrincham maintaining or extending their lead. The strongest HT/FT scenario is therefore an Altrincham lead at the break followed by a full-time win, although a draw at half-time with an Altrincham victory remains a significant alternative.