Sutton United vs Boreham Wood: match statistics

Boreham Wood top the table and remain unbeaten after 12 matches (10 wins and 2 draws), while Sutton United sit 11th with a record of 5 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses. The visitors have won all 5 of their last matches, scoring 15 goals, while the hosts have managed just one win and scored 7 goals over the same period. Away from home, Boreham Wood average 2.5 goals scored and 0.83 conceded, compared with Sutton’s 1.33 scored and 1.5 conceded at home. The visitors’ edge in the quality of chances created is less pronounced than the results suggest: their away xG is 1.44, while Sutton’s home xG is 1.36. An away win is therefore the most likely outcome, although a draw remains a realistic possibility.

BTTS has landed in 100% of Sutton United’s home matches and 67% of Boreham Wood’s away matches, supporting the case for both teams to score. Sutton average 2.83 goals at home, while Boreham Wood average 2.50 away; neither side has yet failed to score in these conditions. However, the visitors have a solid defence: they concede an average of 0.83 goals away from home and have kept a clean sheet in 33% of such matches, so a home goal is not guaranteed. Sutton, meanwhile, concede an average of 1.33 goals at home and have yet to keep a clean sheet there, boosting Boreham Wood’s chances of scoring. BTTS has landed in 60% and 80% of the teams’ respective last five matches, so BTTS - Yes remains the more likely outcome despite the visitors’ defensive strength.

In their matches to date, at least 2 goals have been scored in 100% of Sutton and Boreham Wood games, making this the strongest signal for the Over 1.5 line. Both teams have scored in every match, while Boreham Wood averaged 3.0 goals in their last 5 games compared with Sutton’s 1.4. Their attacking potential is backed up by average xG figures of 1.91 for the home side and 1.44 for the visitors, although Boreham Wood conceded just 0.83 goals per game, reducing confidence in higher lines. Over 2.5 also looks promising, having landed in 100% of Sutton’s games and 83% of Boreham Wood’s. However, with 3.4 goals projected, Over 1.5 offers a greater safety margin.

The strongest signal is Boreham Wood leading at the break and holding on to the lead until full time: the visitors have won their last five matches, while Sutton have managed just one win over the same period. Boreham Wood led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches, whereas Sutton did not lead in any; across the full period covered, the visitors conceded an average of just 0.17 goals before the break, compared with 0.67 for the hosts. The visitors could also maintain their advantage after half-time, having averaged 2.0 goals scored and 0.4 conceded in that half in recent matches, compared with Sutton’s 1.25 and 1.25, respectively. Caution is warranted, however: both teams won 83% of the matches in the statistics considered, and Sutton have a higher average xG, at 1.91 compared with the visitors’ 1.44. Even so, the clear gap in current form and half-time results points most strongly to a 2/2 scenario in the HT/FT market.