Sutton United vs Scunthorpe United: match statistics

Sutton United sit 5th, while Scunthorpe United are down in 22nd, with the hosts winning 4 of their 6 matches this season compared with the visitors’ solitary victory. At home, Sutton have won 67% of their matches and conceded an average of just 1.00 goals, whereas Scunthorpe have lost every away game, allowing opponents to score an average of 2.67 goals. The visitors’ defensive problems are further highlighted by an average away xG against them of 2.16, significantly higher than Sutton’s 1.14 xG created at home. The visitors do produce more shots on target away from home, 4.67 compared with 2.67, but their run of three consecutive away defeats and 11 goals conceded in their last five matches point towards the hosts. Sutton are also not in ideal form after two successive defeats, so the possibility of a draw or a goal in response from Scunthorpe remains significant.

BTTS is supported by both teams’ seasonal indicators, standing at 67% each, which is also slightly above the league average of 65%. Sutton and Scunthorpe have yet to keep a clean sheet, while the visitors’ defence concedes as many as 2.67 goals per match, with an xG against of 2.16. The hosts, however, have shown weaker recent attacking form: they have averaged just 0.8 goals scored across their last 5 matches, with BTTS landing in only 20% of those games. Scunthorpe create more danger, averaging 4.67 shots on target and generating an xG of 1.52, while Sutton allow opponents an xG of 1.19. The risk of Sutton failing to score reduces confidence in the pick, but the visitors’ highly vulnerable defence and the lack of clean sheets on either side still slightly favour a scenario in which both teams find the net.

Sutton should take advantage of Scunthorpe’s exceptionally weak defence, which concedes an average of 2.67 goals per match with an xG against of 2.16. The hosts create chances worth an average of 1.50 xG, while their opponents have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their matches so far. Sutton have also yet to keep a clean sheet, whereas Scunthorpe record 1.52 xG in attack and average 4.67 shots on target, making a goal for the visitors a realistic scenario. At least 2 goals have been scored in all of Sutton’s matches and in 67% of Scunthorpe’s games, which is why Over 1.5 goals has by far the strongest support in the data.

Sutton United have a clearly superior results record, averaging 1.33 points per match, while Scunthorpe have yet to earn a point and have lost 100% of their matches. The visitors concede as many as 2.67 goals per game, with an average xG against of 2.16, compared with just 1.19 for the hosts, strongly supporting a full-time Sutton win. In the first halves, Scunthorpe have been behind in all three matches so far, conceding an average of 1.67 goals, whereas Sutton have been level at the break in two of their three outings. In their last five matches, the hosts have won three times, while the visitors have suffered four defeats and were trailing at half-time in as many as 80% of those games. The most likely scenario is therefore that Sutton exploit their opponents’ defensive weakness, take the lead at the break and maintain it until full time.