Suwon Bluewings vs Cheonan City: match statistics

Suwon Bluewings are the favorites based on league position (2nd) and superior season record: 7 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses versus Cheonan City’s 3-6-2. The hosts’ key advantage is home defense — they concede only 0.67 goals per match on average and have a 50% clean sheet rate, while Cheonan concede 1.5 goals on average away and have a 0% clean sheet rate. The visitors, however, generate more offensive chances on the road: on average 11.5 shots and 5 on target, 1.5 goals scored with xG 1.5 and only 25% of away matches without scoring, which increases their chance to find the net. In the last 5 matches Suwon scored 5 and conceded 6 (averaging 1.4 points per match), while Cheonan scored 4 and conceded 3 (averaging 1.6 points per match), so the visitors are slightly better in short-term points, but Suwon dominate possession (60% vs 53%). Considering Suwon’s defensive stability at home and the fact that hosts win 50% of home games versus Cheonan’s 25% away win rate, I project a home victory, although a draw is realistic given the visitors’ offensive efficiency.

I recommend BTTS - Yes (60%) vs No (40%). Average xG indicate 1.56 expected goals for the home side ((1.55+1.57)/2) and 1.48 expected goals for the away side ((1.50+1.46)/2), and a simple Poisson model yields about a 61% chance of both teams scoring. However, Suwon’s season stats contrast this: season BTTS only 29% and 57% of home matches with a clean sheet expected, plus just 0.71 goals per game and a 5% conversion rate, which weakens their scoring ability. Cheonan, on the other hand, has a season BTTS of 75%, averages 1.5 goals away, 5.0 shots on target and a 13% conversion, clearly supporting at least one away goal. The last 5 matches show BTTS 40% for both sides, with Suwon conceding 1.2 goals on average and Cheonan 0.6, so recent form does not contradict the visitors’ offensive threat. Overall Cheonan’s dominant xG and away efficiency outweigh Suwon’s home defense, therefore I recommend 'Yes' with a 60% probability.

The combined xG indicates an expected 1.56 goals for Suwon (xG attack 1.55 vs Cheonan defense 1.57) and 1.48 for Cheonan (xG attack 1.50 vs Suwon defense 1.46), totaling 3.04 expected goals. At that total, a Poisson distribution yields roughly an 81% probability of at least 2 goals in the match, which strongly supports Over 1.5. Cheonan records 75% of matches over 2.5 goals this season, while Suwon only 14%, so the risk of a higher-scoring game is elevated and justifies a 62% rating for Over 2.5. The efficiency gap (Suwon 0.71 goals per game and 5% conversion vs Cheonan 1.5 goals and 13% conversion) suggests Cheonan will drive more goal-scoring chances while Suwon struggles with finishing. Based on this, I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal, with moderate backing for Over 2.5 and an edge for Under at the 3.5 line.

Both teams have a high proportion of draws in regular time: Suwon records 57% draws at home, Cheonan 50% as an away side, which gives a strong signal for a full-time draw. A draw at Half-Time is also likely — Suwon are level at the break in 43% of matches, Cheonan in 25%; Suwon average just 0.29 goals scored and concede 0.29 by Half-Time, so the first half is typically low-scoring. Cheonan average 1.5 goals per game and 75% of their away matches feature goals from both sides, but Suwon have 57% clean sheets on the season and 71% clean sheets by Half-Time, making it difficult for opponents to break the hosts. In the second half Cheonan average 1.0 goal and 75% of second halves see >0.5 goals, however Suwon concede only 0.29 goals after the break and have 71% clean sheets in 2H, so the likelihood of a turnaround is limited. Based on this, the strongest scenario is a Half-Time draw and a Full-Time draw (X/X).