Suwon Bluewings vs Gimhae City: match statistics

Suwon Bluewings lead the home table, winning 56% of their matches on home turf and conceding just 0.67 goals per game, while keeping a clean sheet in 56% of their appearances. Gimhae City are only 17th in the away standings; on the road, they lose 40% of their matches, concede an average of 1.60 goals and prevent the opposition from scoring in just 20% of games. The hosts create significantly more chances: their average home xG stands at 1.50 compared with Gimhae’s 1.11 away from home, while shots on target average 4.22 to 3.50. However, the visitors arrive on the back of a more favorable run, taking 8 points from their last five matches and scoring 9 goals during that period, which keeps a draw as a realistic outcome. Despite this, Suwon’s superior home organization and Gimhae’s weaker season-long defensive record point to a home win, likely by a narrow margin.

The signal for goals from both sides is clear, as BTTS - Yes occurred in 75% of Suwon Bluewings' matches and 70% of Gimhae City's fixtures, compared with a league average of 64%. In their last five matches, both the home and away sides averaged 1.8 goals scored, while the BTTS rate stood at 80% and 60%, respectively. Suwon have kept no clean sheets this season and concede an average of 2.5 goals per match, which significantly increases Gimhae's chances of scoring. The hosts have recently created chances worth 2.17 xG per game, while Gimhae allow opponents 1.04 xG, making a Suwon goal likely as well. Although both defences have improved their results over the last five games, their consistent attacking output points towards a BTTS - Yes scenario.

The signal for at least two goals is strong, as Suwon Bluewings matches exceeded 1.5 goals in 88% of cases, while Gimhae City matches did so in 80%. Both teams are also in better attacking form: over their last five matches, each averaged 1.8 goals scored. Suwon created chances worth an average of 2.17 xG during this period, while Gimhae City allowed opponents 1.04 xG, supporting a forecast of around 1.55 home goals. The visitors scored in 90% of their matches, while the hosts have failed to keep a clean sheet even once, making their contribution of around 1.25 goals realistic. The Over 1.5 line offers a clearer edge than Over 2.5, as the higher line was covered by Gimhae City in only 40% of their matches this season.

Gimhae City show a clearer signal for a strong start: in their last five matches, they led at the break in 60% of games, scoring an average of 1.4 goals before half-time, while Suwon managed just 0.6 goals in this phase. The hosts have lost as many as 88% of their matches throughout the season and have not recorded a single victory, while their average of 2.5 goals conceded per game is significantly worse than Gimhae’s 1.6. Suwon’s second-half performance is particularly concerning, as they concede an average of 1.88 goals while scoring only 0.5, whereas Gimhae have a more balanced post-break profile, scoring 0.7 and conceding 0.8 goals on average. The visitors are also more efficient in front of goal, converting 13% of their shots compared with 7% for the hosts. Although a half-time draw remains plausible due to the low season averages in the first half, Gimhae’s advantage in recent openings and Suwon’s chronic defensive problems provide the strongest support for the HT/FT 2/2 outcome, with the visitors leading at the break and securing the win at full-time.