Suwon vs Cheonan City: match statistics

Suwon sit 3rd, while Cheonan City are only 14th, with the hosts’ season record standing at 12 wins and just 3 defeats compared with the visitors’ 4 wins and 10 losses. The hosts are unbeaten in their last five matches, scoring 8 goals and conceding just 4 during that run, whereas Cheonan City have failed to win any of their last five games, scoring 4 goals and suffering 3 defeats. At home, Suwon win 60% of their matches, have not lost a single game, and average 2.2 goals, while the visitors lose 58% of their away fixtures and concede an average of 1.83 goals. Suwon’s attack is also significantly more clinical, converting 17% of their shots compared with Cheonan City’s 11%, while the visitors have failed to keep a clean sheet in any league away match. Although the visitors’ average away xG stands at 1.63, Suwon’s defence allows just 0.9 goals per home game, further strengthening the prediction of a home win.

Cheonan City has a BTTS rate of 75%, well above the league average of 62%, while both teams recorded this scenario in 60% of their last 5 matches. The visitors have failed to keep a clean sheet in any match, conceding an average of 1.83 goals, which supports a Suwon goal, with Suwon’s xG standing at 1.43. Cheonan also creates a solid number of chances: its average xG is 1.63, while 4.67 shots on target per match exceeds Suwon’s 3.83. The main risk to BTTS is the visitors’ weaker recent attacking form, as they scored only 0.8 goals per game in their last 5 matches, while Suwon conceded 0.8 goals during that period. Despite this, the combination of Cheonan’s very weak defense and its creative potential gives a slight edge to the BTTS - Yes scenario, in which both teams score.

Suwon have averaged 1.6 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded over their last 5 matches, while Cheonan City have scored 0.8 and allowed 1.4 goals during the same period. The hosts have an average xG of 1.43, compared with 1.63 for the visitors, but their season-long finishing efficiency is limited: Suwon average 0.83 goals, while Cheonan average 1.50. Over the last five games, the 2.5-goal line was exceeded in only 40% of Suwon’s matches and 20% of Cheonan City’s, significantly lowering expectations of an open, high-scoring game. Although 75% of the visitors’ matches went Over 1.5 goals, the hosts have not conceded more than two goals in any league match according to the available distribution, while their 33% clean-sheet rate further supports a limited scoreline. The strongest option is Under 3.5, as it takes at least four goals to lose this bet, while the projected total is 2.45.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Suwon win in the match, as both teams were level at the break in 50% of their games, while over the last five matches this figure rose to 60% for Suwon and 80% for Cheonan City. The hosts are, however, clearly superior in terms of current form: they have collected 11 points from their last five league matches, won three games and remain unbeaten, whereas Cheonan City have failed to win any match and have suffered three defeats. After the break, Suwon averaged 1.0 goals scored and conceded just 0.2 across their last five appearances, while the visitors scored only 0.4 goals and conceded 0.8. In addition, Cheonan City have conceded an average of 1.83 goals per match throughout the season, compared with 0.92 for Suwon, further supporting the forecast of a home advantage in the latter stages. Although Cheonan City have slightly higher average xG, 1.63 versus 1.43, their poor results and winless run point towards Suwon breaking the deadlock after half-time. The recommended HT/FT selection is X/1.