Suzhou Dongwu vs Changchun Yatai: match statistics

Changchun Yatai have a clear attacking edge away from home, averaging 1.86 goals per match compared with just 0.78 in Suzhou Dongwu’s home fixtures. The visitors have failed to score in only 14% of away matches, while the hosts have been held scoreless in as many as 33% of home games; moreover, their conversion rate stands at just 6%, compared with 20% for their opponents. Suzhou have scored only 4 goals in their last five matches, whereas Changchun have found the net 9 times, although their defence remains vulnerable after conceding 11 goals during this period. The hosts concede an average of 1.44 goals at home and have won only 22% of such matches, while Changchun have prevailed in 43% of their away fixtures. The visitors’ advantage in finishing quality and scoring frequency points towards a Changchun win, but the defensive weaknesses of both teams increase the likelihood of a closely contested result.

Seasonal BTTS figures are very high: Suzhou Dongwu have recorded BTTS in 78% of their matches, while Changchun Yatai have done so in as many as 86%, well above the league average of 54%. The visitors have kept a clean sheet in none of their matches this season and concede an average of 1.71 goals per game, while their average goals conceded has risen to 2.2 across their last five appearances. Suzhou have scored just 0.8 goals per game in their last five matches, but created chances worth 1.50 xG, while their opponents allowed 1.48 xG during this period. Changchun average 1.86 goals per match, and the hosts' defence has conceded 2.0 goals per game this season, strongly supporting the expectation of at least one goal from the visitors. Suzhou's weaker recent BTTS rate of 40% lowers confidence in the pick, but the combination of Changchun's exceptionally vulnerable defence and the visitors' consistent attacking output still clearly favours a Goal/Goal scenario.

The profile of both teams clearly points toward goals: Suzhou concede an average of 2.00 goals per match, while Changchun concede 1.71. Over 1.5 goals has landed in 89% of the hosts’ matches and 86% of the visitors’ games, with neither side recording a goalless match. Changchun score an average of 1.86 goals, while in their last five matches they have scored 1.80 and conceded as many as 2.20 goals per game. The quality-of-chances indicators also point to an open game, with Suzhou’s latest xG standing at 1.50 and Changchun’s opponents averaging 1.48 xG. The strongest option is Over 1.5 goals, as two goals require significantly less than maintaining the high efficiency needed to go beyond 2.5 goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw both at half-time and at full-time, as Suzhou were level at the break in 44% of their matches, compared with 43% for Changchun. In their last five fixtures, the hosts went into half-time level in as many as 80% of cases, scoring just 0.2 goals before the break and conceding none. The teams are very evenly matched over the full 90 minutes: Suzhou average 1.44 points per match, while Changchun average 1.43, with almost identical win rates of 44% and 43%, respectively. Changchun's advantage in average goals scored, 1.86 to 1.33, is offset by the visitors' weak defence, which concedes 1.71 goals per match, as well as the hosts' slightly better xG profile, at 1.24 compared with 1.18. Both teams regularly concede goals, and combined with their balanced overall level, this suggests a draw rather than either side holding onto a lead.