Swansea City vs Burnley: match statistics

Swansea City remain unbeaten after five matchweeks, recording 3 wins and 2 draws, while Burnley have failed to win any of their five fixtures and have collected just 2 points. The hosts have been particularly solid defensively: they are yet to concede at home, whereas Burnley concede an average of as many as 3.5 goals per away match. Swansea create chances worth an average of 1.32 xG at home, while the visitors’ defence allows opponents 1.76 xG, giving the hosts clear scope to improve on their modest average of 0.67 goals scored at home. Burnley are capable of scoring an average of one goal per away match and have not failed to find the net on any occasion, but their last two away fixtures ended in defeat, and their away goal difference stands at -5. Swansea’s advantage in current form, defensive organisation and results stability points to a home win as the most likely outcome.

The seasonal data for both teams strongly supports goals at both ends: Swansea and Burnley have recorded BTTS in 100% of their matches so far, and neither side has kept a clean sheet. Burnley concede as many as 3.50 goals per match on average, with 1.76 xG allowed to opponents, which clearly increases Swansea’s chances of scoring. The visitors continue to create chances worth 1.39 xG per match and average 3.5 shots on target, but their recent attacking output stands at just 0.8 goals per game. The biggest counterargument to BTTS is Swansea’s excellent current defensive form, with only 1 goal conceded in their last five matches and just 20% of games featuring goals from both teams. Despite this improvement, Burnley’s defensive weakness and the high seasonal figures recorded by both sides give a slight edge to the scenario in which each team scores at least once.

Swansea are in excellent defensive form: they have conceded just 1 goal in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.2 per game, with an allowed xG of 0.95. At the same time, Burnley concede an average of as many as 3.5 goals away from home, while their average xG against stands at 1.76, which clearly supports the expectation of at least one or two goals for the hosts. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches so far this season, while Over 1.5 goals has also landed in 100% of their games. Swansea's recent results have been more controlled, however, with only 40% of their last five matches going Over 2.5 goals, making the 2.5 line considerably less reliable. The strongest pick is Over 1.5, as the projected total of 2.63 goals combines Burnley's significant defensive weakness with Swansea's currently solid defensive record.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and a Swansea victory at full-time, as the hosts have remained unbeaten in their last five matches, winning 60% and drawing 40%, while Burnley have failed to win any of their games and lost 60%. Swansea were drawing at half-time in 60% of their recent matches, and Burnley likewise in 60%, clearly supporting a level score after the opening 45 minutes. During this period, Swansea averaged 1.0 goals scored and conceded only 0.2 before the break, whereas the visitors scored 0.4 and allowed their opponents 1.0. Swansea’s advantage should become particularly evident after the interval: Burnley conceded an average of 1.0 goals while scoring only 0.4, and the hosts did not concede a single goal after half-time in their last five appearances. Additionally, Burnley’s defence has allowed an average of 3.5 goals per match throughout the season, compared with Swansea’s 1.67 goals conceded, so a level first half has a strong chance of turning into a home win.