Szeged 2011 vs Honvéd W: match statistics

Honvéd is the clear favorite: they have 17 wins this season versus Szeged’s 8 and sit 2nd while Szeged 2011 are 12th. The visitors have scored 45 goals this season and average 1.31 goals away, while the hosts have 26 goals and average 1.15 goals per home match. Honvéd registers more shots (14.23 per match) and more shots on target (4.54) than Szeged (12.23 and 3.15), which translates into a higher volume of scoring opportunities. Defensively the visitors are better: Szeged concedes 1.38 goals at home on average and has conceded 10 goals in the last 5 matches (2.0 avg), whereas Honvéd concedes 0.69 goals away and 6 goals in the last 5 (1.2 avg). Despite similar attacking xG (1.66 Szeged vs 1.68 Honvéd), the lower xG against for the visitors (1.01 vs 1.37) and a lower share of matches without a goal for Honvéd (23% vs 31%) incline the pick towards an away victory.

I back BTTS - Yes: both teams are expected to score. Szeged posts a seasonal BTTS of 57% vs Honvéd 38%, with the league average at 47%, slightly favoring a Goal/Goal scenario. Szeged averages 2.0 goals, xG 1.99 and 6.71 shots on target, while Honvéd records 1.31 goals, xG 1.68 and 4.54 shots on target — both sides create scoring chances; Szeged also shows higher shot conversion 13% vs 9%. Although Szeged has underperformed in the last 5 matches with 0.6 goals scored and 2.0 conceded (recent BTTS 20%), Honvéd’s last 5 show BTTS 60% with 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded, indicating defensive vulnerability. Considering Szeged’s superior xG (1.99 vs 1.68), advantage in shots on target and moderate clean sheet rates of 36% and 38%, I assess BTTS probability at ~62% and tip Yes.

Expected goals were calculated based on xG: Szeged’s attacking xG is 1.99 and Honvéd’s conceded xG is 1.01, yielding 1.50 expected goals for the home side; similarly Honvéd’s attacking xG 1.68 and Szeged’s conceded xG 1.18 give 1.43 for the visitors, totaling 2.93. A Poisson model for a total of 2.93 indicates roughly a 79% probability of Over 1.5 goals, about 56% for Over 2.5 goals and around 34% for Over 3.5 goals; these figures are consistent with seasonal indicators (Szeged has 71% of matches over 1.5, Honvéd 62%, league average 2.51 goals per game). The home side generates more high-quality chances (on average 6.71 shots on target and a conversion rate of 13%), while Honvéd records 4.54 shots on target and a 9% conversion, which increases the likelihood of home goals. In the last 5 matches Szeged has averaged 0.6 goals for and 2.0 against, while Honvéd has averaged 1.0 for and 1.2 against, which further raises the risk of goals due to weaker defensive form of the hosts. In summary, the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (over) with a forecast around 79%, Over 2.5 is moderate (56%), and Over 3.5 does not offer a clear edge (34%).

At half-time the most likely outcome is a draw: Szeged drew at the break in 57% of matches and Honvéd in 62% of their games, yielding about a 60% chance of a draw after 45 minutes. After 90 minutes I assign higher chances to the home side, who average 2.00 goals per match versus 1.31 for the visitors and have higher xG (1.99 vs 1.68) as well as a higher average points per match this season (2.14 vs 1.92), which favors a turnaround in the second half. Additionally, Szeged register more shots on target (6.71 vs 4.54) and have a better conversion rate (13% vs 9%), increasing the likelihood that they will score the decisive goal after the break. However, in the last 5 matches the hosts led at the break in 0% of cases while the visitors did so in 20%, and the average points at half-time in that period are 0.4 for Szeged versus 1.4 for Honvéd, so I give moderate priority to the X/1 scenario. In my model this translates to the highest single probability for X/1 (24%), clear support for 1/1 (18%) and the remaining distribution of outcomes consistent with the figures cited.