Szeged 2011 vs Videoton: match statistics

I predict an away win (Videoton). Videoton this season has 9 wins, 9 draws and 7 losses with 32 goals scored, while Szeged 2011 has 8 wins, 8 draws, 9 losses and 26 goals; Videoton sits 6th in the table, Szeged 10th. In their last five matches Videoton have scored 7, conceded 3 and remain unbeaten (2 wins, 3 draws) averaging 1.8 points per game, whereas Szeged in the same period scored 5, conceded 7 and have a 2-1-2 record averaging 1.4 points per game. Statistically Szeged at home generates higher expected goals (xG 1.68) and more possession (53%), but actually scores only 1.25 goals per home match and has 25% of home games without scoring; Videoton away have xG 1.44, score 1.33 goals, average 3.8 shots on target and have a lower share of goalless matches (17%). Considering the visitors’ better form and efficiency over the last five matches (7–3 in goals, 1.8 pts per game) and the small seasonal offensive differentials, I favor Videoton with approximate probabilities: 42% win, 30% draw and 28% home victory.

Seasonal stats paint a mixed picture: Szeged has only 31% of matches with both teams scoring and keeps a clean sheet in 54% of games with an average of 0.62 goals conceded per match, while Videoton records 67% BTTS matches and averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game. In the last 5 fixtures Szeged averaged 1.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match, whereas Videoton averaged 1.4 scored and 0.6 conceded, which increases the likelihood of both teams getting on the scoresheet. Additionally, xG favors the visitors — Videoton has xG for 1.44 versus Szeged xG against 1.08 — and the visitors average 12.2 shots per match with 11% conversion compared to the hosts’ 10.83 shots and 8% conversion. Szeged’s seasonal defensive edge (0.62 conceded and 54% clean sheets) is notable, but Videoton’s high season BTTS rate (67% vs Szeged 31%) and the visitors’ recent offensive form are the stronger signal. Therefore I assign 62% to BTTS - Yes and 38% to No, recommending the 'Yes' selection.

I expect Szeged to generate about 1.43 expected goals (xG) and Videoton about 1.12, totaling 2.55 expected goals. Both teams have a high share of matches over 1.5 goals: Szeged 62% at home and Videoton 83% away, averaging 72%, which increases the probability of at least two goals. Looking at xG: Szeged’s attacking xG is 1.33 and Videoton’s xG against is 1.73, translating to an estimated ~1.53 for the home side; similarly Videoton has attacking xG 1.44 and xG against versus Szeged 1.08 giving ~1.26; averaging seasonal values and xG leads to 1.43/1.12. A Poisson model with lambda=2.55 estimates ~47% chance for Over 2.5 goals and ~25% for Over 3.5, so the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5 (approx ~73% after accounting for seasonal shares and xG). Although Szeged has 54% clean sheets this season, Videoton’s greater tendency to exceed 1.5 goals away and the calculated xG support backing Over 1.5.

Szeged led at the break in 54% of their home matches and averages 0.77 goals by half-time, while Videoton has an HT average of 0.5, which strongly favors the home side after 45 minutes. The hosts have won the full match in 46% of home fixtures, whereas the visitors win only 25% of away games and concede an average of 1.42 goals per match compared to 0.62 conceded by Szeged, so the final advantage lies with Szeged. xG analysis shows Szeged generates 1.33 xG while Videoton allows 1.73 xG per match, indicating realistic opportunities for the hosts despite the visitors’ higher conversion rate (11% vs 8%). At the same time, the risk of a turnaround after the break is real: Videoton has an AVG_2hg_away of 1.75 and scores on average 0.83 goals in the second half, with their second halves ending with >0.5 goals in 100% of cases. Therefore the most likely scenario based on the data is Szeged leading at half-time and the hosts winning after 90 minutes (1/1).