Tabor Sežana vs Brežice: match statistics

Tabor Sežana opened the season with three wins, scoring 10 goals without conceding a single one, and have won all of their last five matches with a 21:0 goal difference. At home, the hosts have won 100% of their matches and kept a clean sheet in 100% of them, averaging 13 shots and an xG of 1.50. Brežice sit 15th, have lost both league matches, and concede an average of 2 goals per away game, having yet to record a win on the road. Although the visitors have won 3 of their last 5 matches overall, their current run has ended with two defeats, while away from home they average just 1 shot per match. The difference in defensive stability and the hosts’ momentum clearly point towards a Tabor Sežana victory.

The “No” outcome has a slight edge, as Tabor Sežana have conceded no goals in their last 5 matches, despite allowing opponents an average xG of 1.46. The hosts are also in excellent attacking form, scoring an average of 4.2 goals per match, so the most likely scenario is that they score themselves while Brežice fail to find the net. Brežice have recently averaged 2.4 goals and recorded BTTS in 60% of their matches, but their average attacking xG is only 0.96, which limits confidence in them scoring against an opponent on a run of five clean sheets. The teams’ 100% seasonal BTTS rates are a positive signal for “Yes”, but they conflict with Tabor’s current defensive effectiveness and the low league-wide BTTS rate of 35%.

Tabor Sežana are in excellent attacking form: they have averaged 4.2 goals scored over their last five matches, with average xG of 2.11. Brežice have also averaged 2.4 goals per game during this period, although their lower xG of 0.96 suggests that some of this scoring efficiency may be difficult to sustain. In the available season data, both teams had 100% of their matches produce at least 2 goals, and both conceded in every game. The projected total of 2.90 goals gives a clear edge to Over 1.5, while the 2.5 line remains more vulnerable to the impact of the hosts’ excellent recent defensive record, having kept a clean sheet in five consecutive matches.

Tabor Sežana have won their last five matches, scoring an average of 4.2 goals and conceding none, which clearly outperforms Brežice’s record of 2.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match. The hosts held a lead at the break in 80% of their last five appearances, scoring an average of 2.8 goals before half-time, while Brežice led in only 25% of such matches and averaged 0.5 goals. Tabor’s defence kept a clean sheet at half-time in all five of their last matches and also conceded no goals after the interval. Brežice can score after half-time, averaging 1.0 goal, but the hosts won the second half in all five of their last matches and recorded a positive goal difference of +7 in those periods. The strongest scenario therefore remains Tabor Sežana leading at half-time and maintaining their advantage through to full-time (1/1).