Tacuary vs 3 de Noviembre: match statistics

Tacuary have a clear home advantage: they average 1.22 goals at home, while 3 de Noviembre score just 0.67 goals per away game and have not won a single match on the road. The visitors have lost 89% of their away fixtures, concede an average of 1.78 goals away from home and have failed to keep a clean sheet, all of which favors the hosts. Tacuary create slightly better chances, recording a home xG of 1.35 compared with the visitors’ away xG of 1.25, and also register more shots on average: 9.56 to 8.89. Neither side is in particularly strong form, but the hosts have collected 7 points from their last five matches, compared with just 3 for their opponents, making a narrow home win the most likely outcome.

BTTS - Yes is supported by the seasonal percentage of matches in which both teams scored: 60% for Tacuary and 56% for 3 de Noviembre, compared with the league average of 55%. Tacuary concede an average of 1.40 goals per match, while the visitors concede as many as 1.78, with 3 de Noviembre yet to keep a clean sheet in any match this season. Both teams create enough chances: the average xG stands at 1.21 for the hosts and 1.25 for the visitors, rising in their last five matches to 1.28 and 1.50 respectively. A note of caution is the visitors’ weaker current attacking output, as they have averaged 1.0 goal scored across their last five games and recorded BTTS in only 40% of them. Nevertheless, the defensive vulnerability of both sides and the visitors’ lack of clean sheets slightly tilt the prediction towards goals for both teams.

The Over 1.5 goals line is strongly supported by the season data: at least two goals were scored in 80% of Tacuary’s matches and 78% of 3 de Noviembre’s fixtures. The hosts concede an average of 1.40 goals per match, while the visitors concede as many as 1.78, and the away side has yet to keep a clean sheet in any game. The attacking potential of both teams is further confirmed by xG figures of 1.21 for Tacuary and 1.25 for 3 de Noviembre, along with averages of 3.30 and 3.67 shots on target, respectively. Each team has scored 1.0 goal per match across its last five games, while conceding 1.6 and 1.2 goals, respectively. At the same time, only 30% of Tacuary’s matches and 11% of the visitors’ fixtures went over 3.5 goals, which is why Over 1.5 remains the safest and strongest selection.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Tacuary win (X/1), as the hosts were level after 45 minutes in 80% of their last five matches, compared with 60% for 3 de Noviembre. Tacuary nevertheless hold a clear advantage over the full match: they average 0.90 points per game, compared with just 0.11 for their opponents, who have lost 89% of their league fixtures and have not recorded a single victory. The visitors often start poorly, trailing at the break in 56% of matches, while conceding an average of 0.89 goals in the first half, compared with Tacuary’s 0.60 goals scored. After the break, the hosts should gain the upper hand and go on to decide the match, as 3 de Noviembre have not won a single second half, while their defence concedes an average of 0.89 goals during that period.