Tacuary vs Deportivo Santaní: match statistics

Deportivo Santaní sit 3rd, while Tacuary are only 14th, and the full-season record clearly favors the visitors: 12 wins and 35 goals scored compared with the hosts’ 3 victories and 24 goals. Away from home, Santaní average 1.9 goals per match and win 60% of their games, whereas Tacuary win just 20% of their home fixtures, conceding an average of 1.3 goals. The visitors also create more chances, averaging 12.33 shots and 5.22 shots on target per match, compared with Tacuary’s 9.7 shots and 4.1 on target, while their conversion rate stands at 14% versus 11%. Santaní’s last five matches produced 12 goals and 3 wins, whereas Tacuary scored just 3 times and collected 5 points. Although the hosts’ home xG is 1.40 and the visitors’ away xG is 1.57, Santaní’s advantage in attacking form and a more stable defense, conceding an average of 1.0 goal, points to an away win.

The seasonal percentage of matches in which both teams scored is only 27% for Tacuary and 40% for Deportivo Santaní, clearly below the league average of 55%. Tacuary kept a clean sheet in 55% of matches, while the visitors did so in 40%, strongly supporting a scenario in which at least one side fails to score. The hosts are also in poor scoring form: they have scored just 3 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.6 per game. Deportivo Santaní scored 2.4 goals per match during this period, but Tacuary conceded only 1.2 goals per game and has a season average xG against of 1.20. The visitors’ better recent finishing increases the likelihood of them scoring, but the hosts’ weak attacking output makes BTTS - No more likely.

Over 1.5 goals has landed in 73% of Tacuary’s matches and 80% of Deportivo Santaní’s games, providing a clearly more stable signal than the higher goal lines. The visitors average 1.90 goals scored per game this season, while Tacuary concede 1.09; meanwhile, Deportivo Santaní have scored as many as 12 goals in their last five matches, averaging 2.40 per game. Chance quality also points towards goals: average xG stands at 1.60 for the home side and 1.57 for the visitors, with both teams registering around 12–13 shots per match. Tacuary’s weaker recent finishing, with only 3 goals scored in their last five games, reduces confidence in Over 2.5 but does not undermine the scenario of at least two goals. The projected total of 2.71 goals indicates that Over 1.5 is the safest side of the market.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Deportivo Santaní win at full-time, as Tacuary were level at the break in 45% of their matches this season and in 100% of their last five. The hosts are currently clearly weaker offensively: they have averaged just 0.6 goals over their last five appearances, compared with Santaní’s 2.4. The visitors also have a better season-long record, winning 60% of their matches against Tacuary’s 55%, while averaging 1.90 goals per game compared with the hosts’ 1.45. After the break, Santaní have shown a particular advantage, winning the second half in 67% of cases and conceding just 0.44 goals on average, whereas Tacuary have recently scored only 0.2 goals after half-time. Tacuary’s initial caution, reflected in conceding an average of 0.27 goals before the break, increases the likelihood of a draw at the 45-minute mark, but the visitors’ greater attacking potential should ultimately lead to a Santaní victory.