Tacuary vs Encarnación: match statistics

Encarnación holds a clear advantage in chance creation: away they average 13 shots with 5 on target, while Tacuary at home records only 6 shots and 2 on target. Visitors’ average xG is 1.59 versus the hosts’ 0.93, and the hosts score only 0.33 goals per home match (Encarnación scores 0.75 on the road), indicating superior attacking quality for the visitors. Defensively the visitors also have a meaningful edge — Encarnación concedes 0.5 goals on average away and keeps 50% clean sheets, whereas Tacuary concedes 1.67 goals at home and has no clean sheets (0%). Results and form confirm the disparity: the hosts have not won at home (0 wins, 100% home defeats) and average 0.4 points over the last 5 matches, while the visitors average 0.8 points per match in their last 5. Considering the higher number of shots on target, superior xG (1.59 vs 0.93) and the hosts’ poor finishing (67% of matches without scoring), I predict an Encarnación victory.

Although Tacuary has a seasonal BTTS rate of 67% and scores on average 1.0 goal per match, it concedes as much as 2.33 goals per match, indicating defensive instability. Encarnación away records 50% clean sheets and concedes only 0.5 goals on average, with a seasonal BTTS of 0%, which significantly lowers the likelihood of Both Teams To Score. In the last 5 matches Tacuary had BTTS in 40% of games, while Encarnación in 20%, so the short-term trend also favors No Goal. Seasonal xG is 1.69 for the home side versus 1.59 for the visitors, and xG against Encarnación is 1.72, suggesting the visitors limit actual concessions despite creating chances. Considering these figures and the league clean sheet rate of 64% and average goals of 2.32, I pick BTTS = No with an estimated probability of about 70% against 30% for Yes.

I estimate expected goals at 1.52 for Tacuary and 1.48 for Encarnación (total 3.00), calculated by averaging home season xG 1.69 and xG conceded by visitors 1.72, and away xG 1.59 and xG conceded by hosts 1.43, with a form adjustment from the last 5 matches (last 5 xG: home 0.98, away 1.54). A Poisson model with total lambda = 3.00 yields probabilities: Over 1.5 ≈ 80% (P(total≤1)=19.9%), Over 2.5 ≈ 58% (P(total≤2)=42.3%) and Over 3.5 ≈ 35% (P(total≤3)=64.7%). Additionally, hosts concede on average 2.33 goals per match and have 100% of their games >1.5 goals this season, while visitors concede on average 0.5 goals per match this season but have a high xG against of 1.72; both teams generate a similar number of shots (13.33 vs 13.0) and shots on target (5.33 vs 5.0), supporting goal potential despite moderate finishing (conversion rate 8% vs 6%). As a result, the strongest and most reliable signal is Over 1.5 (recommendation: Over 1.5), while Over 2.5 has a moderate edge and Over 3.5 remains risky.

I prefer the 2/2 scenario (Encarnación leading at Half-Time and ultimately winning) because Tacuary are behind at the break in 67% of their matches and have a 0% home win rate, while Encarnación win 50% of their away games. Tacuary concede on average 1.0 goals by Half-Time and 2.33 goals per match, whereas Encarnación concede only 0.5 goals this season and keep a clean sheet at Half-Time in 100% of cases, which favors the visitors taking the lead at the break. xG values are similar (1.69 for the home side versus 1.59 for the visitors), so the advantage stems mainly from the home side’s weaker defense rather than a significant difference in chance creation. Additionally, the hosts concede early (0–15 min: 2 goals) and often drop points by Half-Time, increasing the likelihood of Encarnación leading and maintaining the result.