Tacuary vs Fernando de la Mora: match statistics

Fernando de la Mora appears to be the favorite, as the visitors average 11.5 shots and 2.5 on target per away match versus Tacuary’s 6.5 shots and 2 on target, and their average expected xG is 1.41 versus the hosts’ 1.01. Tacuary do not score at home — average goals 0 per match and 100% of home matches without a goal, compared with Fernando de la Mora’s away average of 0.5 goals and 50% of away matches without a goal, giving the visitors a clear edge in attacking efficiency. The visitors’ defense also looks better statistically: Fernando de la Mora concedes 1.0 goal on average away, while Tacuary concede 1.5 goals at home and have 100% losses in home performances. Despite lower possession (43% vs 51%), the visitors’ superiority in shot volume and xG and a better recent form (Fernando 2 wins in last 5 and an average of 1.2 points per game vs Tacuary 0 wins and 0.4 points) support a win for the visitors. Therefore I forecast a visitor victory with moderate probability.

Seasonal stats favor No Goal: Tacuary averages 0.33 goals per match, Fernando de la Mora 0.50, and seasonal BTTS percentage for both teams in the data is 0%. Visitors keep a clean sheet in 50% of matches, hosts in 33%, while the league BTTS rate is 45%, so the league signal is only moderate. xG shows possibilities (xG_for Tacuary 1.88 vs xG_against Fernando 1.74; xG_for Fernando 1.41 vs xG_against Tacuary 1.47), but low conversion (2% for Tacuary, 4% for Fernando), only 3 and 2 goals scored this season and an average of 4.33 and 2.5 shots on target indicate created chances rarely translate into goals. In the last five matches Tacuary had BTTS in 40% of cases, Fernando 0%, and form lines 'dllld' vs 'lllww' suggest the visitors are more secure at the back. Therefore I assign 65% to No BTTS and 35% to BTTS and recommend the 'No' tip as the stronger signal from the available data.

The xG-based model yields 1.81 xG for Tacuary and 1.44 xG for Fernando de la Mora, totaling 3.25 expected goals in the match. For a combined λ=3.25 the Poisson distribution implies roughly an 84% chance of Over 1.5 goals and about a 63% chance of Over 2.5 goals, therefore the strongest signal is at the 1.5 line. Seasonal goals averages appear low (Tacuary 0.33, Fernando 0.50) and both teams have 0% of matches Over 2.5, but the low conversion rate (2.0% vs 4.0%) explains the gap between actual goals and xG. Tacuary averages 4.33 on-target shots and 15.67 shots per match versus Fernando’s 2.5 and 11.5, which together with xG values (1.88 vs 1.41) confirms chance creation and the credibility of the 3.25 total. As a result I recommend Over 1.5 as the best line to play given the highest statistical probability (~84%), while Over 2.5 remains only moderately favored (~63%).

Strong signal for a half-time draw: the home side were level at the break in 67% of matches (2 of 3), and the away side in 100% (2 of 2), so a draw at 45 minutes is the most likely state. For the final whistle I favor the away team — their average points per match are 1.5 versus the home side's 1.0, and their win rate is 50% vs 33%; in the last five fixtures the away team won 40% of matches, the home team 0%. Additionally, the away team are more dangerous after the break: they average 1.5 second-half goals and in 100% of matches at least one goal is scored after half-time, whereas the home team average 1.0 second-half goals, which supports a decision in the second half. The home side generate higher xG (1.88 vs 1.41) and more shots (15.67 vs 11.5) but convert them less efficiently (conversion 2.0% vs 4.0%), so despite a creative advantage the away team have a greater chance of converting opportunities after the break. On this basis I indicate the most likely scenario as a half-time draw and an away victory (X/2) at 36% probability, with alternatives being draw/draw (28%) and away leading at half-time and winning (2/2 12%).