Tacuary vs Guaireña: match statistics

Tacuary and Guaireña have a very similar attacking profile: both teams average 1.25 goals, at home and away respectively. The hosts draw more frequently on their own ground, sharing the points in 50% of matches, while Guaireña draw 38% of their away fixtures. Tacuary have a slightly better recent run, with 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat, along with a 5:6 goal difference, whereas the visitors recorded 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats during the same period, scoring 4 goals. However, Guaireña create slightly more chances away from home, averaging 10.5 shots and an xG of 1.36, compared with Tacuary’s 8.75 shots and xG of 1.29. Both defences concede more than 1.3 goals per match and keep a clean sheet in only 13% of appearances, but the high draw rates and both teams’ limited attacking efficiency point towards a share of the points.

The BTTS - No pick is not primarily based on Tacuary’s poor finishing: the hosts score just 0.89 goals per match on average and failed to score in 56% of their games this season. Their matches ended with both teams scoring in only 22% of cases, well below Guaireña’s 75% and the league average of 56%. Guaireña have only 13% clean sheets and concede an average of 1.38 goals, giving Tacuary a genuine chance to score, but the hosts have managed just 5 goals across their last five matches. The current form of both teams raises the BTTS signal, as this market landed at 60% for both sides in their last five appearances; however, averages of 1.0 and 0.8 goals scored still indicate a risk that at least one team will fail to score. Therefore, BTTS - No is marginally more likely, particularly due to Tacuary’s limited attacking potential.

The match profile points to a moderate number of goals: Tacuary score an average of 0.89 goals per match, while Guaireña average 1.25, although in their last five appearances the teams scored only 1.0 and 0.8 goals respectively. However, the combined xG averages of both teams remain higher, with the hosts generating 1.42 xG and the visitors 1.36 xG, supporting a scenario of around two goals rather than an open, high-scoring game. Tacuary keep a clean sheet in 44% of matches, and their games ended with under 3.5 goals in 78% of cases; for Guaireña, the corresponding figure is 75%. In their last five matches, both teams also conceded an average of only 1.2 and 1.0 goals respectively, which is why Under 3.5 goals offers the strongest edge.

A draw at half-time is the most likely starting point, as Tacuary were level at the break in 56% of their matches, compared with 50% for Guaireña. Both teams’ first halves tend to be low-scoring: the hosts average 0.22 goals in the opening 45 minutes and the visitors 0.50, while their respective average total goals are 0.89 and 0.75. After the break, the balance shifts towards Tacuary, who concede just 0.33 goals per second half, whereas Guaireña allow opponents to score 1.13. The hosts also have a higher seasonal win rate, 44% versus 25%, while their xG of 1.42 exceeds the visitors’ 1.36, alongside Guaireña’s weaker defensive profile, with the visitors conceding an average of 1.62 xG. The HT/FT scenario of a draw at half-time followed by a Tacuary win at the final whistle best combines a cautious opening with the hosts’ clearly superior second-half record.