Tallinna FC Flora vs Kuressaare: match statistics

Tallinna FC Flora have a clear home advantage, winning 60% of such matches, scoring an average of 2.2 goals and creating chances worth 2.02 xG. Kuressaare score just 0.91 goals per away match, fail to score in 45% of their games, and lose as many as 73% of them. The hosts also dominate possession and shot accuracy, averaging 58% possession and 5.5 shots on target per match compared with 40% and 3.55 for the visitors. Kuressaare’s away defence concedes an average of 1.82 goals with 2.14 xG against, and the team have kept no clean sheets on the road. Although the visitors are in good overall form, having collected 10 points from their last 5 matches and scored 16 goals, their poor away record strongly supports a Flora victory.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, mainly due to Flora’s poor current attacking efficiency: they have scored only 3 goals in their last five matches, averaging 0.6 per game, while BTTS occurred in just 20% of those fixtures. Kuressaare are in very good defensive form, conceding an average of 0.8 goals over the same period and allowing only 4 goals across five appearances. The hosts failed to score in as many as 55% of their season matches, while the visitors have not kept a clean sheet even once, which partially sustains the possibility of a Flora goal. At the same time, Kuressaare have recently scored 3.2 goals per match, so the most realistic scenario is a goal for the visitors with a possible lack of response from the hosts, rather than a goalless draw. The higher xG values for both sides—1.69 for Flora and 2.04 for Kuressaare over their last five matches—reduce confidence in the pick, but do not eliminate the clear difference in actual goal production.

The case for Over 1.5 goals is primarily driven by the vulnerability of both defenses: Flora concede an average of 1.45 goals, while Kuressaare concede 1.82, with the visitors failing to keep a clean sheet in any match. The teams’ average xG figures are solid, standing at 1.40 for Flora and 1.47 for Kuressaare, while the xG allowed is notably high at 1.92 and 2.14, respectively. At least two goals were scored in 64% of Flora’s matches and 73% of Kuressaare’s games, while the Estonian league averages 3.11 goals per match. Recent form has been inconsistent, as Flora have scored just 3 goals in their last five matches, whereas Kuressaare have found the net 16 times during this period, averaging 3.2 goals per game. The 2.5 line remains close to balanced, with 55% of both teams’ matches going Over this threshold, making Over 1.5 the safer and strongest selection.

Kuressaare are in clearly better current form: over their last five matches, they have averaged 3.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, winning three times, while Flora have scored just 0.6 goals per game and lost three of their last five. The visitors held a lead at the break in 60% of those appearances and averaged 1.6 first-half goals, compared with 20% and just 0.2 goals for the hosts, respectively. Season-long data favor Flora in the first half, as they led in 36% of matches compared with 9% for Kuressaare, but current form clearly reverses that picture. Kuressaare have also maintained their advantage after the break, averaging 1.6 goals and recording a positive +5 goal difference in second halves across their last five matches. The most likely scenario is therefore that the visitors take the lead before half-time and hold on to it until the final whistle (2/2).