Tallinna FC Flora vs Paide: match statistics
Tallinna FC Flora vs Paide: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Tallinna FC Flora played Paide in Meistriliiga (Estonia). The match was played on 21 June 2026. Venue: A. Le Coq Arena. Final score: 1:2.
Current form
Tallinna FC Flora: 4-0-1, 2.40 points/match. Paide: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Tallinna FC Flora scores 2.13 and concedes 1.07 goals per match. Paide scores 1.50 and concedes 1.25. League average: 3.05 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Tallinna FC Flora 33%, Paide 63%. Over 2.5: Tallinna FC Flora 73%, Paide 50%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 63%.
xG, shots and style
Tallinna FC Flora has higher xG: 2.08 vs 1.56. Tallinna FC Flora: 17.1 shots per match, Paide: 13.1.
Match halves
Tallinna FC Flora: half-time lead 40%, second-half goals 1.20. Paide: half-time lead 38%, second-half goals 0.75.
Goals by minute
Tallinna FC Flora: 61-75 (9 goals). Paide: 0-15 (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Meistriliiga: 3.05 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 63%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 5 previous H2H matches were available: 2-1-2. Average goals 2.40, BTTS 80%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back Tallinna FC Flora to win; the hosts average 2.71 goals per home game versus Paide’s 1.88 on the road. Flora concede only 0.71 goals at home, while Paide concede 1.5 away, and the hosts have 57% clean sheets compared to just 13% for the visitors. This is supported by xG values — Flora’s home xG is 1.95 with xG against 1.38, whereas Paide record xG 1.71 and xG against 1.53 — indicating higher quality chance creation for the hosts. In the last 5 matches the hosts scored 15 goals and recorded 4 wins, averaging 2.4 points per game, while Paide scored 4 goals, won only once and averaged 1.0 point per game. Considering the higher conversion rate (17% vs 13%), more shots on target (5.57 vs 5.0) and 71% home win rate versus Paide’s 38% away win rate, I rate the hosts’ chances significantly higher.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Key signals favor BTTS - Yes: Paide has a season BTTS of 75% and only 13% clean sheets, while Flora has BTTS 50% and 38% clean sheets, which together increases the likelihood both teams will score. Paide averages 1.88 goals per match, produces 1.71 xG, attempts 14.38 shots with 5.0 on target, and has a conversion rate of 13%; Flora has 1.13 goals, 1.41 xG, 11.75 shots and 3.0 shots on target, so the visitors are more active offensively. Flora has scored 15 goals in the last 5 matches (3.0 per match) and conceded 5 goals (1.0 per match), while Paide in the last 5 had 4 scored (0.8) and 8 conceded (1.6), indicating Flora is in scoring form and Paide is prone to conceding. Additionally, the league average goals is 3.08 and the season BTTS rate is 54%, and the fact both teams have BTTS at 60% in their last 5 matches supports the both-teams-to-score scenario. Based on this I assess the probability of BTTS at about 72% for 'Yes' and 28% for 'No', therefore I recommend the 'Yes' bet as the strongest signal from the available data.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The model combining offensive xG and opponent-adjusted xG yields expected goals of 1.47 for Tallinna FC Flora (xG attack 1.41, xG against Paide 1.53) and 1.63 for Paide (xG attack 1.71, xG against Flora 1.55), total 3.10 goals. In the last 5 matches Flora averaged 3.0 goals (15 goals) and Paide 0.8 (4 goals), with Paide registering more shots on target (5.0 vs 3.0) and a higher seasonal xG (1.71 vs 1.41), which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides. Season percentages show Flora’s matches have a 50% rate of games over 1.5 goals and Paide 75%, while the league averages 3.08 goals per match — additional supports for goals. With an expected total of 3.10 goals, calculated probabilities suggest approximately 82% for Over 1.5, 60% for Over 2.5 and 37% for Over 3.5. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 (line 1.5, Over) — the high probability edge of 82% combined with xG and form alignment (Flora: 100% of last 5 matches over 2.5) gives an advantage for this play.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Tallinna FC Flora are in better form: in their last 5 matches they won 4 of 5 (80%) and led at the break in 60% of games, averaging 1.4 goals by Half-Time, whereas Paide have 1 win in the last 5 (20%) and average 0.4 HT goals. Season-long metrics favor Paide in chance creation (xG 1.71 vs Flora’s 1.41 and 5.0 shots on target vs 3.0), which explains their higher season BTTS rate of 75% versus the hosts’ 50%. Nonetheless, Flora’s superiority in recent results (an average of 2.4 points per game in the last 5 compared to Paide’s 1.0) and more frequent leads at the break lead me to expect the hosts to take a HT lead and hold it. For these reasons I assign the highest probability to the 1/1 scenario (44%), with a meaningful probability for a turnaround after an HT draw (X/1 16%) and a possibility of goals from both sides (e.g. X/2 7% and 2/2 6%) due to the visitors’ xG and shots advantage.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Tallinna FC Flora | Paide | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 31% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Tallinna FC Flora is 140% better for: last-5 form.
2.4 pts / match - Tallinna FC Flora · 1 pts / match - Paide
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Tallinna FC Flora is 42% better for: goals scored per match.
2.13 goals / match - Tallinna FC Flora · 1.5 goals / match - Paide
Tallinna FC Flora is 17% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.07 goals / match - Tallinna FC Flora · 1.25 goals / match - Paide
Tallinna FC Flora scores in 80% of matches (12 of 15 matches), while Paide keeps a clean sheet in 25% (4 of 16 matches).
Paide scores in 88% of matches (14 of 16 matches), while Tallinna FC Flora keeps a clean sheet in 47% (7 of 15 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Tallinna FC Flora
Over / Under - Paide
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Tallinna FC Flora - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 40% of matches and wins 67%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Paide - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 38% of matches and wins 44%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 20% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (9 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (4 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Tallinna FC Flora
Paide
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Meistriliiga).
Teams vs league
| Tallinna FC Flora | Liga | Paide | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.20 | 3.05 | ▼ 2.75 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 33% | 55% | ▲ 63% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 73% | 63% | ▼ 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 47% | 24% | • 25% |
| Goal before half-time | • 73% | 72% | ▼ 63% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 93% | 90% | ▼ 88% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (5): Tallinna FC Flora 2 - 1 - 2 Paide. Average goals 2.40, both teams scored in 80% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Tallinna FC Flora vs Paide?
The Meistriliiga match finished Tallinna FC Flora 1:2 Paide. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Tallinna FC Flora and Paide?
In the last 5 head-to-head matches Tallinna FC Flora won 2, Paide won 2 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.40 goals, with both teams scoring in 80% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Tallinna FC Flora vs Paide?
Tallinna FC Flora score 2.13 goals per game on average and Paide 1.50. The Meistriliiga average is 3.05 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 63% of games. Both teams score in 33% of Tallinna FC Flora's matches and 63% of Paide's.
What form are Tallinna FC Flora and Paide in?
Over the last 5 games Tallinna FC Flora have a 4-0-1 record (2.40 points per game) and Paide 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Tallinna FC Flora vs Paide?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Tallinna FC Flora vs Paide: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.