Tallinna FC Flora vs Trans: match statistics

Tallinna FC Flora is the favorite in this match: they sit 5th versus Trans in 9th, and at home they have a 75% win rate, average 1.75 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded per match. Trans have 0% wins on the road, score 0.67 goals and concede 2.67 per away game, with an away goal difference of -6. The difference in quality of chances is clear — Flora averages 16.75 shots and 4.5 on target with xG 2.09 per match, while Trans average 9.67 shots, 2.67 on target and xG 1.18. It should be noted, however, that both teams have conceded 10 goals in their last 5 matches, indicating weaker defensive form in the short term. Considering the xG advantage (2.09 vs 1.18), higher shot volume and markedly better home statistics, I expect a home victory.

Season metrics favor BTTS: Tallinna FC Flora had BTTS in 75% of matches, Trans in 67%, giving a simple average of 71%. Flora scores 1.75 goals per game (xG 2.42) and has had 0% matches without scoring, whereas Trans averages only 0.67 goals but concedes 2.67 goals per match and has 0% clean sheets, which strongly increases the likelihood both teams will score. Risks undermining BTTS include Trans failing to score in 33% of season fixtures and Flora having BTTS in only 40% of their last 5 matches, lowering certainty. However, Trans’s recent form in the last 5 (80% BTTS, 1.6 goals average) and Flora’s superiority in chance creation (20.25 shots and 6.25 on target, xG 2.42 vs Trans’s 9.67 shots and 2.67 on target with xG 1.18) point to an open game. Considering the season 75% and 67%, Trans’s 0% clean sheets, Flora’s 0% matches without a goal and recent form signals, I assess BTTS at 78% and recommend a 'yes' bet.

Based on combining attacking xG and the opponent’s average xG allowed, the model gives 2.07 expected goals for Tallinna FC Flora (attacking xG 2.42 vs Trans defense 1.72) and 1.40 for Trans (attacking xG 1.18 vs Flora defense 1.62), totalling 3.47 goals. Flora averages 20.25 shots and 6.25 on target with a conversion rate of 9.0%, while Trans has 9.67 shots and 2.67 on target, confirming the home side’s advantage in chance creation. Seasonal metrics show Flora had 100% of matches Over 2.5 goals, Trans 67%, and the league average is 3.11 goals per match, which further supports Over 2.5. Both teams have high BTTS probabilities: 75% for Flora and 67% for Trans, and in the last 5 matches Trans scored 8 and conceded 10 (averages 1.6 and 2.0), increasing the likelihood of goals from both sides. As a result I recommend Over 2.5 as the strongest signal (expected 3.47 goals), while Over 1.5 is virtually certain (92%) and Over 3.5 remains more risky (approx. 35%).

Tallinna FC Flora has a clear advantage in chance creation: the hosts’ average xG is 2.42 versus 1.18 for Trans; the hosts register an average of 6.25 shots on target compared to 2.67 for the visitors and score on average 1.75 goals per match against 0.67 for their opponents. At half-time, a draw is most common — the hosts were level at the break in 50% of matches, and the average goals at half-time are 1.0 for Flora and 0.67 for Trans, which increases the probability of a draw after 45 minutes. After the break Flora is more likely to turn the result in their favor: they average 1.0 goal in the second half, have gained 9 points in second halves and win 75% of such situations, suggesting they can produce a turnaround. The visitors have a weak defense (on average 2.67 goals conceded per match) and 0% wins this season, so the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win — X/1 (30%).