Tallinna FC Levadia vs Trans: match statistics

Tallinna FC Levadia is the clear favorite: at home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses (60% wins and 0% losses), averaging 2.2 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded per match. Trans sit 10th, have only 2 wins this season and have lost all away matches (100% away defeats), conceding on average 3.5 goals away and scoring 0.5 goals on the road. Levadia creates significantly more chances: 15.2 shots and 5.0 on target per home match with xG 1.86 and a conversion rate of 14%, while Trans average 10.75 shots, 2.75 on target and xG 1.24 with only 5% conversion. Form confirms the advantage — Levadia scored 10 goals in the last 5 matches and averages 2.2 points per match in that period, whereas Trans conceded 15 goals and average 0.6 points per match. Considering the superiority in possession (59% vs 42%), number of shots on target and better home xG, plus Trans having no clean sheets away, I predict a Levadia win.

I pick BTTS - Yes — the statistics strongly indicate both teams to score: Tallinna FC Levadia has a seasonal BTTS rate of 75% and 80% in the last 5 matches, while Trans has 50% for the season and 60% in the last 5. Levadia generates xG 2.42 per match and scores on average 1.75 goals per game this season with 6.25 shots on target, so the home side is a real source of goals; Trans has xG 1.24 and scores 0.5 goals seasonally, but has averaged 1.2 goals in the last 5 matches, showing offensive improvement. Trans’s defense is weak — they concede 3.5 goals on average this season and 3.0 in the last 5, while Levadia has scored 17 goals this season and has 100% of matches over 2.5 goals, so the hosts have a high chance to score. Additionally Trans have recorded no clean sheets this season (0%), and the league averages 3.28 goals per match, which further supports BTTS. Considering seasonal BTTS rates 75% vs 50%, last 5 matches 80% vs 60%, Trans’s lack of clean sheets and Levadia’s high xG, I assess BTTS Yes at 72% and recommend this pick.

xG and goals-per-game analysis points to a high-scoring fixture: Tallinna FC Levadia has xG_for 2.42 and a seasonal goals average of 1.75, while Trans concedes 3.50 goals per game on average and has xG_against 1.81. Averaging the home side’s offensive xG (2.42) with the visitors’ defensive xG (1.81) yields roughly 2.12 expected goals for Levadia; similarly, Trans’s offensive xG (1.24) combined with the hosts’ defensive xG (1.62) gives ~1.43 expected goals for the visitors, totaling ~3.55 goals. The hosts dominate offensive actions: on average 20.25 shots and 6.25 on target per game versus Trans’s 10.75 and 2.75, with conversion rates of 9% for Levadia and 5% for Trans. Seasonal indicators confirm the trend: Over 2.5 is 100% for the home team and 75% for the visitors, the league has 65% of matches over 2.5, and in the last 5 matches Over 2.5 occurred in 60% of Levadia’s games and 100% of Trans’s. As a result, the strongest signal is Over 2.5 (over) with expected 3.55 goals; Over 1.5 is virtually certain (seasonal 100%/75%), while Over 3.5 is only slightly favored, since the hosts have 0% seasonal matches over 3.5.

The most likely scenario is Tallinn FC Levadia leading at half-time and winning the match (1/1), as Levadia clearly dominates in chance quality: xG 2.42 versus Trans 1.24, and averages 20.25 shots and 6.25 on target compared to the visitors’ 10.75 and 2.75. In the first half Levadia averages 1.0 goals at the break versus Trans 0.5, and in the last five matches the hosts led at half-time in 60% of games, increasing the probability of a lead after 45 minutes. The visitors concede on average 3.5 goals per match and are weakest after the break—conceding an average of 2.5 goals in the second half, with 3 goals conceded in minutes 61–75 and as many as 6 in minutes 76–90—so a turnaround is unlikely. Levadia are also strong after the break: they won the second half in 75% of matches and have a +2.0 second-half goal difference. Accordingly, I allocated 40% to 1/1, 30% to X/1 and 6% to the 2/1 scenario, which together yield a 76% chance of a Levadia victory.