Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Indy Eleven: match statistics
Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Indy Eleven: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Tampa Bay Rowdies played Indy Eleven in USL Championship (United States). The match was played on 2 May 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Tampa Bay Rowdies: 3-2-0, 2.20 points/match. Indy Eleven: 2-3-0, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Tampa Bay Rowdies scores 1.83 and concedes 0.67 goals per match. Indy Eleven scores 1.67 and concedes 1.33. League average: 2.67 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Tampa Bay Rowdies 50%, Indy Eleven 83%. Over 2.5: Tampa Bay Rowdies 50%, Indy Eleven 67%. League level: BTTS 53%, Over 2.5 53%.
xG, shots and style
Tampa Bay Rowdies has higher xG: 1.74 vs 1.54. Tampa Bay Rowdies: 15.7 shots per match, Indy Eleven: 12.8.
Match halves
Tampa Bay Rowdies: half-time lead 50%, second-half goals 1.17. Indy Eleven: half-time lead 50%, second-half goals 1.17.
Goals by minute
Tampa Bay Rowdies: 76-90+ (5 goals). Indy Eleven: 61-75 (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
USL Championship: 2.67 goals per match, BTTS 53%, Over 2.5 53%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 4 previous H2H matches were available: 4-0-0. Average goals 3.25, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back a home win. Tampa Bay averages 2.67 goals in home matches with an xG of 1.92 per game, while Indy Eleven scores 1.33 on the road with an xG of 1.41, indicating a clear offensive edge for the hosts. The hosts average 17 shots and 7.67 on target at home versus 12 shots and 4 on target for the visitors, and shot conversion is 16% compared to Indy’s 11%, translating into superior chance conversion. Defensively Tampa Bay concedes 1.0 goals at home with an opponent xG of 0.61, whereas the visitors concede 1.67 on the road with an opponent xG of 1.59; the hosts are unbeaten at home (0% losses) and have a 67% home win rate, while Indy has not won away (0% wins) and has 33% of away matches without scoring. Additionally, the hosts average 2.2 points per game in the last 5 fixtures versus 1.0 for the visitors, so form and superiority in chance quality point to a Tampa Bay victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
High probability for BTTS - Yes: Tampa Bay has a home BTTS rate of 100% this season and 60% in the last 5, while Indy Eleven shows 67% seasonally and 100% in the last 5, providing a strong signal for Goal/Goal (100% vs 67%; last5: 60% vs 100%). Both teams create and concede chances — Tampa Bay averages 2.0 goals scored per match with xG 1.66 and concedes 1.0, Indy averages 1.33 scored with xG 1.41 and concedes 1.67, so statistically goals are expected at both ends. No clean sheets this season (0% for both) and a high frequency of matches over 2.5 goals (67% for home and 67% for away) and 67% of cases combining over 2.5 with BTTS further reinforce the Yes scenario. Additionally, average xG against 1.7 (Tampa) and 1.59 (Indy) and average shots on target 6.33 vs 4.0 indicate quality and volume of scoring opportunities from both sides; therefore I pick BTTS - Yes and assign 82% to BTTS Yes versus 18% to No Goal.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Both teams possess clear offensive potential: Tampa Bay averages 2.0 goals per match, Indy Eleven 1.33, with home xG at 1.66 versus 1.41 for the visitors. Defenses are not airtight either — Indy concedes xG 1.59 on average, Tampa Bay 1.70 — yielding projected expected goals of approximately 1.63 for the home side and 1.56 for the visitors, totaling ~3.19 expected goals. At this total the probability distribution implies roughly an 83% chance of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), about 62% for Over 2.5 and around 39% for Over 3.5. Seasonal figures confirm this: both teams have 67% of matches over 2.5 goals, and BTTS is 100% for the home team and 67% for the visitors, which increases the likelihood of both teams scoring. As a result the strongest and safest signal from the data is Over 1.5 (83% vs 17%), although Over 2.5 (62%) also shows a significant edge.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Tampa Bay Rowdies led at half-time in 3 of 3 matches (100%) and average 1.0 goals by the break, while Indy Eleven did not lead in any of 3 matches (0%) and average 0.0 goals at half-time. The Rowdies score 2.0 goals per game and concede 1.0, averaging 2.33 points per game and a 67% win rate, whereas Indy Eleven score 1.33, concede 1.67 and manage only 0.67 points per game with a 0% win rate. The home advantage is supported by offensive metrics: xG 1.66 versus 1.41 for the visitors, an average of 6.33 shots on target versus 4.0, and a conversion rate of 15% versus 11%, which increases the chance of maintaining a lead after the break. However, Indy is stronger in second halves (on average 1.33 goals in second halves and 2.33 points gained after the break versus the hosts’ 1.0 goal and 1.33 points), so a turnaround to draw at full-time (1/X) is a realistic secondary scenario. Given Rowdies’ 100% half-time leads and superior points and goal metrics (2.33 vs 0.67 average points per game), the most likely and strongest signal is 1/1 (lead at the break and home win).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Tampa Bay Rowdies | Indy Eleven | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 40% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Tampa Bay Rowdies is 22% better for: last-5 form.
2.2 pts / match - Tampa Bay Rowdies · 1.8 pts / match - Indy Eleven
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Tampa Bay Rowdies is 10% better for: goals scored per match.
1.83 goals / match - Tampa Bay Rowdies · 1.67 goals / match - Indy Eleven
Tampa Bay Rowdies is 99% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.67 goals / match - Tampa Bay Rowdies · 1.33 goals / match - Indy Eleven
Tampa Bay Rowdies scores in 100% of matches (6 of 6 matches), while Indy Eleven keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 6 matches).
Indy Eleven scores in 83% of matches (5 of 6 matches), while Tampa Bay Rowdies keeps a clean sheet in 50% (3 of 6 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Tampa Bay Rowdies
Over / Under - Indy Eleven
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Tampa Bay Rowdies is 33% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
2 pts / match - Tampa Bay Rowdies · 1.5 pts / match - Indy Eleven
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Tampa Bay Rowdies - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 50% of matches and wins 67%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Indy Eleven - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 50% of matches and wins 33%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 2.4 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 0% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (5 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (4 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Tampa Bay Rowdies
Indy Eleven
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (USL Championship).
Teams vs league
| Tampa Bay Rowdies | Liga | Indy Eleven | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.50 | 2.67 | ▲ 3.00 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 50% | 53% | ▲ 83% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 50% | 53% | ▲ 67% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 50% | 29% | ▼ 0% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 50% | 65% | ▲ 100% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 100% | 81% | ▲ 83% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (4): Tampa Bay Rowdies 4 - 0 - 0 Indy Eleven. Average goals 3.25, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Indy Eleven?
The USL Championship match finished Tampa Bay Rowdies 1:0 Indy Eleven. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Tampa Bay Rowdies and Indy Eleven?
In the last 4 head-to-head matches Tampa Bay Rowdies won 4, Indy Eleven won 0 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.25 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Indy Eleven?
Tampa Bay Rowdies score 1.83 goals per game on average and Indy Eleven 1.67. The USL Championship average is 2.67 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 53% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Tampa Bay Rowdies's matches and 83% of Indy Eleven's.
What form are Tampa Bay Rowdies and Indy Eleven in?
Over the last 5 games Tampa Bay Rowdies have a 3-2-0 record (2.20 points per game) and Indy Eleven 2-3-0 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Indy Eleven?
The statistical background for Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Indy Eleven — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.