Tamworth vs Solihull Moors: match statistics
Tamworth vs Solihull Moors: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Tamworth played Solihull Moors in National League (England). The match was played on 3 April 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Tamworth: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match. Solihull Moors: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Tamworth scores 1.32 and concedes 1.61 goals per match. Solihull Moors scores 1.58 and concedes 1.65. League average: 2.94 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Tamworth 68%, Solihull Moors 55%. Over 2.5: Tamworth 56%, Solihull Moors 53%. League level: BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 57%.
xG, shots and style
Solihull Moors has higher xG: 1.54 vs 1.47. Tamworth: 11.3 shots per match, Solihull Moors: 11.9.
Match halves
Tamworth: half-time lead 20%, second-half goals 0.76. Solihull Moors: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.80.
Goals by minute
Tamworth: 61-75 (13 goals). Solihull Moors: 76-90+ (15 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
National League: 2.94 goals per match, BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 57%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 8.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict a Tamworth home victory. Tamworth have a 45% home win rate with a positive home goal difference of +6, while Solihull win only 26% of away matches and have an away goal difference of -5. In their last five matches Tamworth scored 8 goals and recorded 3 wins (an average of 1.8 points per game), whereas Solihull have 4 goals and just 1 win in that period (1.0 point per game), indicating a form advantage for the hosts. Quality-of-chance analysis also favors Tamworth: home xG is 1.65 versus xG conceded 1.35 (difference +0.30), while Solihull’s away xG is 1.43 with xG conceded 1.66 (difference -0.23); the hosts also average more shots on target 4.9 compared to the visitors’ 4.05. Nonetheless, Solihull’s high away draw rate (42%) and their share of clean sheets on the road (26%) increase the likelihood of a point split, so I estimate the draw probability at about 30%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I forecast BTTS - Yes with a 62% probability versus 38% for No Goal. Basis: seasonal indicators—Tamworth has a season BTTS of 52% and Solihull 58%; league-wide BTTS occurs in 57% of matches, and in the last 5 meetings both teams produced BTTS in 60% of games. Goal stats show Tamworth averages 1.9 scored and 1.81 conceded per match this season, while Solihull averages 1.21 scored and 1.47 conceded; in the last 5 matches Tamworth averaged 1.6 scored and 1.4 conceded, Solihull 0.8 scored and 2.0 conceded, indicating a high risk of goals conceded on both sides. xG confirms offensive potential and defensive deficit: Tamworth xG 1.64 vs xGA 1.73, Solihull xG 1.43 vs xGA 1.66, and low clean sheet percentages of 24% and 26% increase BTTS probability. Additionally Tamworth averages 5.43 shots on target versus Solihull 4.05, and the home side have 67% of matches over 2.5 goals this season (away 37%), collectively favoring the 'Yes' scenario.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Both teams have high percentages of matches over 1.5 goals: Tamworth 81% and Solihull 84%, while the league average goals is 2.94, which already suggests a strong probability of over 1.5 goals. xG comparison shows 1.65 xG for the home side and 1.58 xG for the visitors (total 3.23 expected goals), confirming that at least 2 goals should be scored in the match and increasing the chance of Over 2.5. Tamworth scores on average 1.9 goals with a 15% conversion rate (67% of matches over 2.5), whereas Solihull has recently conceded an average of 2.0 goals over the last 5 matches and has a seasonal BTTS of 58%, so the combination of the home offense and the visitors’ weaker defense favors goals from both sides. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 (pick: Over 1.5) due to the 81% and 84% figures for both teams and the combined xG=3.23; Over 2.5 would be my second-best choice (~64% probability), while Over 3.5 is less likely (~31%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Tamworth led at the break in 43% of matches, drew at half-time in 38%, and Solihull led only in 19%, indicating a home advantage at the break. In the second half Tamworth averages 0.9 goals scored and 1.19 conceded, while Solihull averages 0.68 scored and 0.95 conceded; with a draw at half-time this yields an expected advantage for the home side of +0.22 goals (0.9–0.68). A Poisson model on these parameters suggests that with a single-goal lead at half-time the home side will maintain the lead in about 74% of cases, draw down from a lead in ~19%, and lose after leading in only ~7%. Additionally Tamworth records higher xG (1.64 vs 1.43) and more shots on target per match (5.43 vs 4.05), while Solihull registers 42% draws away, which sustains the probability of an FT draw. As a result the most likely scenario is 1/1 (Tamworth leading at HT and winning FT), hence the selection of 1/1 with a weight of 32%.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Tamworth | Solihull Moors | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 40% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Tamworth is 80% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / match - Tamworth · 1 pts / match - Solihull Moors
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Solihull Moors is 20% better for: goals scored per match.
1.32 goals / match - Tamworth · 1.58 goals / match - Solihull Moors
Tamworth scores in 80% of matches (33 of 41 matches), while Solihull Moors keeps a clean sheet in 25% (10 of 40 matches).
Solihull Moors scores in 75% of matches (30 of 40 matches), while Tamworth keeps a clean sheet in 17% (7 of 41 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Tamworth
Over / Under - Solihull Moors
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Solihull Moors is 25% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.12 pts / match - Tamworth · 1.4 pts / match - Solihull Moors
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Tamworth - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 20% of matches and wins 37%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Solihull Moors - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 30%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (13 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (17). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (15 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (16). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Tamworth
Solihull Moors
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (National League).
Teams vs league
| Tamworth | Liga | Solihull Moors | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.93 | 2.94 | ▲ 3.23 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 68% | 58% | ▼ 55% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 56% | 57% | ▼ 53% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 17% | 23% | ▲ 25% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 63% | 72% | ▼ 68% |
| Goal after half-time | • 83% | 82% | ▲ 85% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Tamworth 0 - 0 - 1 Solihull Moors. Average goals 8.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Tamworth vs Solihull Moors?
The National League match finished Tamworth 1:0 Solihull Moors. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Tamworth vs Solihull Moors?
Tamworth score 1.32 goals per game on average and Solihull Moors 1.58. The National League average is 2.94 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 57% of games. Both teams score in 68% of Tamworth's matches and 55% of Solihull Moors's.
What form are Tamworth and Solihull Moors in?
Over the last 5 games Tamworth have a 3-0-2 record (1.80 points per game) and Solihull Moors 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Tamworth vs Solihull Moors?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.