Tamworth vs Sutton United: match statistics

Although Tamworth sit 21st and Sutton United 6th, the home-match statistics give the hosts a slight edge. Tamworth average 2 goals at home and generate an xG of 2.15, while Sutton score an average of 1.25 goals away from home with an xG of 1.27. The hosts also average 18.25 shots per home match, compared with Sutton’s 8.5 shots away, pointing to more chances for Tamworth. The hosts’ defence is a concern: they concede an average of 1.75 goals at home and have shipped 12 goals in their last five matches. Sutton have won 2 of their last 5 games, while Tamworth have won just 1, so despite the edge for the hosts, the chances of both teams remain closely matched.

Across the season, both teams scored in 40% of Tamworth’s matches and just 25% of Sutton United’s, which supports BTTS - No. Sutton kept a clean sheet in 50% of its matches, while Tamworth failed to score in 40%, making a goal-less home side a realistic scenario. On the other hand, Tamworth scored in each of its last 5 matches, averaging 1.6 goals, so the case for BTTS - No is not especially strong. The visitors scored an average of just 0.8 goals over that period, although the hosts conceded as many as 2.4; with Sutton conceding an average of 1.0 goals per match this season, it remains more likely that at least one team will fail to score.

At least 2 goals were scored in 80% of Tamworth matches and 75% of Sutton United matches, providing a strong basis for backing Over 1.5 goals. Tamworth average 1.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, while Sutton average 1.25 scored and 1.0 conceded, making an expected total close to 2.52 goals consistent with both teams’ scoring records. In addition, Tamworth scored 8 goals and conceded 12 in their last 5 matches, with every one of those games finishing Over 2.5 goals. Higher lines are less reliable: Over 2.5 goals landed in 40% of Tamworth matches and 50% of Sutton matches, while no Over 3.5 goals have been recorded for either team in the season data. Therefore, Over 1.5 goals is the strongest betting angle, although Tamworth’s recent form suggests the potential for a higher-scoring game.

A half-time draw followed by a Sutton United win looks the most likely outcome. The visitors failed to score in the first half in 3 of their 4 away matches analysed, but also kept a clean sheet during that period in 3 of 4, supporting a 0-0 scoreline at the break. Tamworth were level at half-time in 3 of their last 5 matches overall, although they led at the break in 3 of their 5 home games, so an early home lead cannot be ruled out. Sutton’s away record after the break is stronger: the visitors average 1.0 second-half goals, while Tamworth have failed to score in the second half at home and have conceded an average of 0.6 goals. The advantage is not decisive, however, as Sutton’s second-half scoring rate in their recent matches overall has dropped to an average of 0.25 goals, giving the X/2 HT/FT outcome a 20% chance.