Tamworth vs Worthing: match statistics

Worthing sit 8th, while Tamworth are 22nd, and over the course of the season the visitors have won 2 of the 3 meetings, compared with 0 wins for the hosts. The current run also favours Worthing: they have collected 9 points from their last 5 matches, compared with Tamworth’s 5 points, with Tamworth having lost their last two games. Away from home, Worthing have won every match so far and scored an average of 3 goals, whereas Tamworth have lost 100% of their home fixtures and conceded an average of 2 goals. The hosts do create more chances, averaging 17 shots and recording an xG of 1.90, while Worthing’s away xG stands at just 0.81, which limits confidence in the prediction. Despite the visitors’ defensive issues, with opponents generating an xG of 2.71 against them, their superior efficiency of 60% and better results point to a slight advantage for Worthing.

The signal for BTTS - Yes is clearly positive: Worthing have seen both teams score in 100% of their matches this season, while the same has occurred in 100% of Tamworth’s last five games. Across their last five matches, Tamworth have averaged 2.2 goals scored and 2.2 conceded, whereas Worthing have scored 1.6 goals per match and conceded 1.2. Both sides also create enough chances, with their average xG over the last five appearances standing at 1.84 and 1.72, while their opponents have been allowed 1.61 and 1.67 xG respectively. The strongest argument for a home goal is that Worthing have kept no clean sheets, conceding an average of 2 goals per match. The risk to the selection comes from Tamworth’s 50% clean-sheet rate across the season, but the hosts’ current defensive form is considerably less stable, supporting a scenario with goals at both ends.

The match profile clearly favors goals: in their last five matches, Tamworth scored and conceded 2.2 goals per game, while Worthing averaged 1.6 goals scored. Both teams are also creating solid-quality chances, with an average xG of 1.84 for Tamworth and 1.72 for Worthing over their last five matches. The 2.5-goal line was surpassed in 80% of the hosts’ last five appearances and in 60% of the visitors’ matches, compared with a league average of 3.14 goals per game. A particularly strong argument for at least two goals is that neither team has finished a match without scoring this season, while Worthing has seen both teams score in 100% of their matches so far. Over 1.5 is the safest choice, as it combines the high attacking output of both teams with defenses that have conceded an average of 2.2 and 1.2 goals respectively in their last five matches.

The strongest scenario is Worthing leading at the break and holding on to win, as the visitors have been ahead at half-time in 3 of their last 5 matches, while Tamworth were behind at the interval in 2 of their 5 games over the same period. Worthing have recently averaged 0.8 goals scored before half-time and conceded just 0.4, whereas Tamworth conceded as many as 1.6 goals in the opening 45 minutes, while averaging 1.0 goal scored. Full-time form also favours the visitors: they won 60% of their last five matches, compared with just 20% victories for Tamworth. In second halves, Worthing have a seasonal average of 3.0 goals scored, while the hosts have failed to score in this period, further strengthening the case for an away win despite Tamworth’s high xG of 2.05.