Tapatío vs Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara: match statistics
Tapatío displays significantly better disposition in home matches, winning 50% of games at home and recording a positive goal difference (+6). The hosts average 2.25 goals per match in their games, which, with a 16% efficiency and a solid 6.25 shots on target per match, makes them a dangerous opponent. Leones Negros performs much worse in away matches – winning only 33% of games, and their goal difference stands at -7, confirming offensive problems (averaging 1 goal per match) as well as defensive ones (averaging 1.78 conceded goals). Additionally, the visitors fail to score in 33% of away matches, which could be crucial given the hosts' solid defense (25% clean sheets). The form of both teams in the last five matches is even (1.4 points per match each), however, Tapatío's advantage at their own stadium and Leones Negros' weakness in away matches speak for a home victory.
Tapatío vs Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Tapatío played Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara in Ascenso MX (Mexico). The match was played on 30 January 2026. Final score: 2:0.
Current form
Tapatío: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Tapatío scores 1.53 and concedes 1.41 goals per match. Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara scores 1.37 and concedes 1.37. League average: 2.94 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Tapatío 59%, Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara 53%. Over 2.5: Tapatío 59%, Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara 42%. League level: BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 54%.
xG, shots and style
Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara has higher xG: 1.55 vs 1.46. Tapatío: 12.3 shots per match, Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara: 12.2.
Match halves
Tapatío: half-time lead 35%, second-half goals 0.71. Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara: half-time lead 32%, second-half goals 0.79.
Goals by minute
Tapatío: 76-90+ (9 goals). Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara: 76-90+ (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ascenso MX: 2.94 goals per match, BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 54%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Tapatío displays significantly better disposition in home matches, winning 50% of games at home and recording a positive goal difference (+6). The hosts average 2.25 goals per match in their games, which, with a 16% efficiency and a solid 6.25 shots on target per match, makes them a dangerous opponent. Leones Negros performs much worse in away matches – winning only 33% of games, and their goal difference stands at -7, confirming offensive problems (averaging 1 goal per match) as well as defensive ones (averaging 1.78 conceded goals). Additionally, the visitors fail to score in 33% of away matches, which could be crucial given the hosts' solid defense (25% clean sheets). The form of both teams in the last five matches is even (1.4 points per match each), however, Tapatío's advantage at their own stadium and Leones Negros' weakness in away matches speak for a home victory.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Tapatío | Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Tapatío is 12% better for: goals scored per match.
1.53 goals / match - Tapatío · 1.37 goals / match - Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara
Tapatío scores in 71% of matches (12 of 17 matches), while Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara keeps a clean sheet in 26% (5 of 19 matches).
Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara scores in 74% of matches (14 of 19 matches), while Tapatío keeps a clean sheet in 18% (3 of 17 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Tapatío
Over / Under - Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Tapatío is 12% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.41 pts / match - Tapatío · 1.26 pts / match - Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Tapatío - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 35% of matches and wins 29%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 32% of matches and wins 42%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 0% |
| No goal | 20% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +2 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (7 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Tapatío
Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ascenso MX).
Teams vs league
| Tapatío | Liga | Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.94 | 2.94 | ▼ 2.74 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 59% | 56% | ▼ 53% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 59% | 54% | ▼ 42% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 18% | 26% | • 26% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 88% | 76% | ▲ 79% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 76% | 79% | ▼ 74% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Other recorded players
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- Leones Negros de la Universidad de GuadalajaraSubstitutionOn: Daniel TorresOff: Olaf González Manzano
- Leones Negros de la Universidad de GuadalajaraSubstitutionOn: Jeremy Kal-el Sepúlveda MoránOff: Joél Gustavo Pérez Valle
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Tapatío 0 - 1 - 0 Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Tapatío vs Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara?
The Ascenso MX match finished Tapatío 2:0 Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Tapatío vs Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara?
Tapatío score 1.53 goals per game on average and Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara 1.37. The Ascenso MX average is 2.94 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 59% of Tapatío's matches and 53% of Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara's.
What form are Tapatío and Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara in?
Over the last 5 games Tapatío have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Tapatío vs Leones Negros de la Universidad de Guadalajara?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.