Tapatío vs Morelia: match statistics
Tapatío displays impressive home form with a 55% win rate and a positive +9 goal difference at their own stadium. The hosts score an average of 2.18 goals per match at home, which is significantly better than Morelia's 1.31 goals away. Morelia has weaker away form (31% wins, -2 goal difference) and a higher average of goals conceded (1.46) in away matches. Morelia's recent form is better (2.4 points per game), but Tapatío at home, with a higher xG (1.62 vs 1.29) and a better shot conversion rate (15% vs 13%), holds the advantage. I expect a close match, but the home advantage and better offensive statistics in home games point towards a victory for the hosts, although a draw is also a realistic scenario.
Tapatío vs Morelia: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Tapatío played Morelia in Ascenso MX (Mexico). The match was played on 22 March 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Tapatío: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Morelia: 4-0-1, 2.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Tapatío scores 1.74 and concedes 1.48 goals per match. Morelia scores 1.44 and concedes 1.15. League average: 2.93 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Tapatío 65%, Morelia 48%. Over 2.5: Tapatío 65%, Morelia 56%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 53%.
xG, shots and style
Morelia has higher xG: 1.61 vs 1.45. Tapatío: 12.3 shots per match, Morelia: 13.6.
Match halves
Tapatío: half-time lead 43%, second-half goals 0.87. Morelia: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.74.
Goals by minute
Tapatío: 76-90+ (12 goals). Morelia: 76-90+ (12 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ascenso MX: 2.93 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 53%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 0.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Tapatío displays impressive home form with a 55% win rate and a positive +9 goal difference at their own stadium. The hosts score an average of 2.18 goals per match at home, which is significantly better than Morelia's 1.31 goals away. Morelia has weaker away form (31% wins, -2 goal difference) and a higher average of goals conceded (1.46) in away matches. Morelia's recent form is better (2.4 points per game), but Tapatío at home, with a higher xG (1.62 vs 1.29) and a better shot conversion rate (15% vs 13%), holds the advantage. I expect a close match, but the home advantage and better offensive statistics in home games point towards a victory for the hosts, although a draw is also a realistic scenario.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Tapatío | Morelia | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 39% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.38 | 0.27 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Morelia is 71% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Tapatío · 2.4 pts / match - Morelia
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Tapatío is 21% better for: goals scored per match.
1.74 goals / match - Tapatío · 1.44 goals / match - Morelia
Morelia is 29% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.48 goals / match - Tapatío · 1.15 goals / match - Morelia
Tapatío scores in 78% of matches (18 of 23 matches), while Morelia keeps a clean sheet in 37% (10 of 27 matches).
Morelia scores in 74% of matches (20 of 27 matches), while Tapatío keeps a clean sheet in 17% (4 of 23 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Tapatío
Over / Under - Morelia
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Tapatío is 6% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.57 pts / match - Tapatío · 1.48 pts / match - Morelia
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Tapatío - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 43% of matches and wins 35%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Morelia - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 44%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 2.4 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 20% | 0% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (12 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (12 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +6 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Tapatío
Morelia
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ascenso MX).
Teams vs league
| Tapatío | Liga | Morelia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.22 | 2.93 | ▼ 2.59 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 65% | 55% | ▼ 48% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 65% | 53% | ▲ 56% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 17% | 26% | ▲ 37% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 91% | 74% | ▼ 63% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 83% | 79% | • 78% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Other recorded players
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Other recorded players
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- TapatíoSubstitutionOn: Sebastián Maximiliano Esparza GonzálezOff: Leonardo Sebastián Jiménez Quintero
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Tapatío 0 - 1 - 0 Morelia. Average goals 0.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Tapatío vs Morelia?
The Ascenso MX match finished Tapatío 2:1 Morelia. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Tapatío vs Morelia?
Tapatío score 1.74 goals per game on average and Morelia 1.44. The Ascenso MX average is 2.93 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 53% of games. Both teams score in 65% of Tapatío's matches and 48% of Morelia's.
What form are Tapatío and Morelia in?
Over the last 5 games Tapatío have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Morelia 4-0-1 (2.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Tapatío vs Morelia?
The statistical background for Tapatío vs Morelia — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.