Team Altamura vs Cavese: match statistics

Team Altamura have a moderate home advantage: they have won 33% of their home matches, while Cavese are yet to win away from home. The hosts average 0.83 goals at home with an xG of 1.33, while the visitors manage just 0.67 goals away from home with an xG of 1.22, so both teams have been relatively limited in front of goal. Altamura’s defence is a concern, however, as they concede an average of 1.83 goals at home, compared with Cavese’s 1.67 away. In their last five matches, the hosts scored 7 goals and took 8 points, while the visitors scored 9 goals and collected 7 points. Cavese’s lack of away wins favours Altamura, but the visitors’ 50% away draw rate means a share of the points is also a realistic outcome.

Altamura have seen both teams score in 83% of their home matches, while Cavese have done so in 50% of their away matches; across each team’s last five games, the figure was 60%. Altamura have averaged 2.83 goals at home, and Cavese have conceded 1.67 per away match, making an Altamura goal look likely. There is more uncertainty over Cavese, who have scored just 0.67 goals per away match and failed to score in 50% of those games, although their average has risen to 1.8 goals over their last five matches. Since Altamura have conceded an average of 1.67 goals at home and have recently allowed opponents chances worth an average xG of 1.59, the scenario in which both teams score is marginally more likely.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals: this line has been surpassed in 100% of Altamura’s matches and 67% of Cavese’s. Altamura average 2.83 goals scored and 6.33 shots on target at home, while Cavese concede an average of 1.67 goals away. The hosts’ attacking potential is supported by an xG of 1.95, although their actual finishing may inflate their goals-per-game average. Caution on higher lines is warranted, as Cavese average just 0.67 goals scored away and have failed to score in 50% of those matches. Therefore, with a projected total of 3.05 goals, the 1.5 line offers a clearer signal than betting on at least three or four goals.

A draw at half-time is likely, as Team Altamura were level at the break in 4 of their last 5 matches, while Cavese did so in 3 of 5. The case for a home win at full-time is supported by Altamura’s home record: an average of 2.83 goals scored and 2 points per match, compared with Cavese’s 0.67 goals and 0.5 points away from home. Altamura also create more chances, averaging 1.95 xG against their opponents’ 1.22 and recording 6.33 shots on target per match compared with 2.5. They are particularly strong after the break: at home, they score an average of 2 goals in the second half and have won the second half in all 6 matches, supporting the scenario of a draw at half-time followed by a full-time win. However, recent form tempers confidence in the pick: across Altamura’s 5 most recent matches, they averaged only 0.8 goals after the break, while Cavese conceded just 0.2 in that period.