Temperley vs Nueva Chicago: match statistics

Temperley are clear favorites: they have won 69% of their home matches, while Nueva Chicago have lost 69% of their away games. The hosts average 1.88 goals at home, compared with just 0.44 for the visitors on the road, who have failed to score in 69% of those matches. Temperley’s edge in creating chances is reflected in their home xG of 1.39, compared with the opponents’ away xG of 1.02; the visitors also concede chances worth an average of 1.50 xG. In their last five matches, Temperley scored 8 goals and conceded 4, while Nueva Chicago netted only 3. Although the visitors also conceded just 3 goals over that period, their poor away scoring record points to a home win.

The strongest signal against both teams scoring is Nueva Chicago’s attack: the visitors average 0.44 goals per match and have failed to score in 69% of their games. Temperley have kept a clean sheet in 44% of matches and concede an average of 0.69 goals, making a goal from the visitors the main obstacle to BTTS - Yes. The results so far support this: both teams have scored in 13% of Nueva Chicago’s matches, compared with 44% of Temperley’s. In their last 5 matches, the visitors scored 3 goals in total, with BTTS occurring only once; the hosts scored 8 goals over the same period, making a match in which only one side scores more likely. BTTS - No means at least one team fails to score; it does not necessarily mean a 0:0 draw.

The strongest signal is Under 3.5 goals: this outcome occurred in 87% of Temperley’s matches and 94% of Nueva Chicago’s games. The visitors score just 0.44 goals per game on average and have failed to score in 69% of their matches, while the hosts concede an average of 0.69 goals and keep a clean sheet in 44% of games. Temperley average 1.00 goal scored, although their xG is 1.49, so I project around 1.22 goals for the hosts and 0.63 for the visitors. The 2.5-goal line also looks favorable, as it was not surpassed in 75% of the hosts’ matches and 81% of the visitors’ games, but Under 3.5 has considerably stronger support in both teams’ results.

A draw at half-time is likely: Temperley were level at the break in 50% of their matches this season and in 4 of their last 5, while averaging just 0.38 goals in the first half. Nueva Chicago scored only 0.13 goals per match before half-time, so the visitors may struggle to break the deadlock in the opening half. Temperley’s advantage looks more pronounced after the break: they average 0.63 goals compared with the visitors’ 0.31, and concede 0.19 compared with 0.50. Temperley’s average xG of 1.49 against their opponents’ 1.02, as well as the fact that Nueva Chicago have lost 69% of their matches this season, also support a home win. Therefore, a draw at half-time followed by a home win at full-time is the strongest single scenario, although Temperley’s high rate of half-time draws also leaves a genuine chance of a draw at full-time.