Temperley vs San Martín Tucumán: match statistics

Temperley are the favorites in this matchup: in the last 5 games the home side scored 8 goals and have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss (averaging 2 points per game), whereas San Martín has not won in that period, recording 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses, scoring no goals and averaging 0.2 points per game. At home Temperley scores 1.71 goals per game and has an xG of 1.51 against xG conceded of 1.16, while San Martín on the road averages 0.63 goals with xG 1.28 and concedes 1.13 goals per game. Temperley is also more efficient — the hosts’ shot conversion is 15% with 4.57 shots on target per game, while the visitors have only 6% conversion and 3.75 shots on target; additionally San Martín fails to score in 50% of away matches, compared to 29% for Temperley. The visitors have conceded 6 goals in the last 5 matches, the hosts conceded 4 in the same period, and San Martín’s away goal difference is -4 versus +1 for Temperley at home, which confirms the visitors’ weaker defense and lower offensive efficiency. Based on this I assess the probability of a Temperley win at 65%, a draw 20% and a San Martín win 15%.

San Martín Tucumán averages 0.63 goals per season and has failed to score in the last 5 matches (0.0 goals in last 5), despite season xG of 1.28 and 1.19 xG in the last 5, indicating a clear lack of finishing with a conversion rate of only 6%. Temperley has a solid defense: concedes 0.56 goals per season and 0.8 goals in the last 5 matches, with xG against of 0.76 and 56% of matches ending in a clean sheet. Season BTTS rates are 33% for Temperley, 25% for San Martín, and a league average of 38% — all low and arguing against frequent Goal/Goal outcomes. Additionally, San Martín has 0% BTTS in the last 5 matches and 0 goals in that period, while Temperley scored 8 and conceded 4 in their last 5, suggesting the home side will be more active but the opponent has a significant finishing problem. Given San Martín’s zero goals in the last 5, Temperley’s 56% clean sheets and low seasonal BTTS figures, I assign 75% probability to 'No Goal' and 25% to 'BTTS - Yes'.

After combining offensive and defensive xG I get 1.22 expected goals for Temperley (xG for 1.34 vs xG against away 1.10) and 1.02 for San Martín (xG for 1.28 vs xG against home 0.76), yielding a total of 2.24. A Poisson distribution with λ=2.24 translates to probabilities: Over 1.5 ≈66%, Over 2.5 ≈39% and Over 3.5 ≈19%. Seasonal metrics further support Over 1.5: Temperley had Over1.5 in 56% of matches, San Martín in 75%, while Over2.5 occurs only in 22% of home matches and 0% of away matches. Temperley scored 8 goals in the last 5 matches (1.6 average), and San Martín failed to score in those five (0.0), which increases the chance of at least two goals despite low BTTS (33%/25%). Consequently I recommend Over at the 1.5 line as the strongest signal based on the combined xG of 2.24 and the modelled probability ≈66%.

Temperley has a clear advantage in recent form: in 4 of their last 5 matches (80%) they held a lead at the break and averaged 1.2 goals by halftime, while San Martín recorded 0.0 first-half goals and 0% halftime leads in those five games. Over the full match Temperley won 3 of their last 5 fixtures (60%) and averages 2.0 points per game in the last 5, whereas San Martín averages 0.2 points and 0% wins in that period. Performance metrics support this picture: Temperley’s xG is 1.34 versus San Martín’s 1.28, shot conversion is 9% versus 6%, and Temperley concedes 0.56 goals per match on average compared to 1.13 conceded by San Martín. However, on the season Temperley has been level at halftime in 67% of matches, so scenarios with a draw at the break (X/1 and X/X) retain a significant portion of probability despite the home side’s superior form. In summary, the strongest signal is Temperley leading at half-time and winning by full-time (1/1), hence it is assigned the highest probability.