Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Durango: match statistics

Tepatitlán de Morelos has scored 7 goals in the last 5 matches (1.4 per match) and holds a record of 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, averaging 1.6 points per game. Durango over the same period has scored 4 goals (0.8 per match) and recorded 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss, averaging 1.2 points per game. The hosts clearly outperform in offensive efficiency (7 vs 4 goals in 5 matches) and points average (1.6 vs 1.2), but they have also conceded more goals (6 conceded versus 4 for the visitors), indicating a risk of an open, high-scoring game. Durango, however, tends to draw (3 draws in 5 matches), which increases the probability of a shared point outcome, although the visitors’ lower goals-per-game limits their chances of winning. Therefore Tepatitlán de Morelos is the favorite, but a draw is a realistic outcome.

Both teams have a BTTS rate of 60% in their last 5 matches (60% and 60%), meaning in 3 of 5 games for each side both teams scored. Tepatitlán averages 1.4 goals scored and concedes 1.2 per match (7 for and 6 against in 5 matches), while Durango averages 0.8 scored and also concedes 0.8 (4 for and 4 against), so both teams demonstrate the ability to score and to concede. xG metrics show Tepatitlán with xG 1.37 and Durango with xG 1.60 over the last 5 matches, with xG against of 1.05 and 0.87 respectively, suggesting both sides create chances and the opposing defenses are exposed. Durango has a significant gap between xG 1.60 and actual 0.8 goals, indicating potential for improved finishing against Tepatitlán’s defense, which concedes on average 1.2 goals. Considering 60% BTTS for both teams, xG above 1.3 for both sides and a combined average goals conceded of ~2.0 per match (1.2+0.8), I assess BTTS probability at 70% vs 30% and recommend a "Yes" (BTTS - Yes) bet.

Averaging xG with recent-5 match means, I estimate Tepatitlán will score ~1.26 goals and Durango ~1.06 goals, i.e. about 2.32 goals combined. From the data: Tepatitlán xG is 1.37 and Durango xG 1.60, while their conceded xG are 1.05 (Tepatitlán) and 0.87 (Durango); the raw xG sum 1.37+1.60=2.97, but after accounting for defensive parameters the projection is lowered to a more conservative 2.32. In 60% of their last 5 matches both teams scored, and total goals across those five matches are 7 (Tepatitlán) and 4 (Durango), i.e. averages 1.4+0.8=2.2 goals per game, which supports a scenario of at least 2 goals. A Poisson model with total 2.32 yields ~67% probability for Over 1.5 (≥2 goals), ~41% for Over 2.5 (≥3) and ~21% for Over 3.5 (≥4), therefore the strongest and most confident pick is Over 1.5.

The last five matches show Tepatitlán’s advantage: average goals 1.4 per game versus Durango’s 0.8, with the home side winning 40% of those fixtures compared to 20% for the visitors. At Half-Time both teams score little — Tepatitlán 0.4 and Durango 0.4 (around 0.8 combined) — and Tepatitlán were level at the break in 60% of their last five matches, which increases the likelihood of a draw after 45 minutes. After Half-Time the home side statistically dominate: Tepatitlán average 1.0 goal in second halves and average second-half totals of 1.8 versus Durango’s 0.4 and 0.6, which favors a turnaround by the hosts. Therefore the strongest signal is Half-Time/Full-Time draw then Tepatitlán to win (X/1); I assign this scenario the highest probability at 28%, with 14% for 1/1 and 19% for X/X as secondary options.