Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Tapatío: match statistics
Tepatitlán de Morelos presents solid home form with a goal difference of +1 and 30% clean sheets at their own stadium. The hosts possess better xG statistics (1.73 vs 1.25), indicating a higher quality of created situations. Tapatío has weak efficiency on away trips - barely 13% wins and a negative goal difference (-2), conceding an average of 1.25 goals per match. The recent form of both teams is balanced, however, the home advantage and better offensive indicators of the hosts speak in their favor. An average of 2.1 goals in Tepatitlán's home matches and 2.25 in Tapatío's away matches suggests that the match could be high-scoring, but the hosts have greater chances of triumph.
Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Tapatío: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Tepatitlán de Morelos played Tapatío in Ascenso MX (Mexico). The match was played on 24 January 2026. Final score: 2:0.
Current form
Tepatitlán de Morelos: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Tapatío: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Tepatitlán de Morelos scores 1.25 and concedes 1.00 goals per match. Tapatío scores 1.63 and concedes 1.38. League average: 2.98 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Tepatitlán de Morelos 55%, Tapatío 63%. Over 2.5: Tepatitlán de Morelos 35%, Tapatío 63%. League level: BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 56%.
xG, shots and style
Tepatitlán de Morelos has higher xG: 1.63 vs 1.48. Tepatitlán de Morelos: 14.1 shots per match, Tapatío: 12.6.
Match halves
Tepatitlán de Morelos: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.70. Tapatío: half-time lead 38%, second-half goals 0.75.
Goals by minute
Tepatitlán de Morelos: 76-90+ (10 goals). Tapatío: 76-90+ (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ascenso MX: 2.98 goals per match, BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 56%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Tepatitlán de Morelos presents solid home form with a goal difference of +1 and 30% clean sheets at their own stadium. The hosts possess better xG statistics (1.73 vs 1.25), indicating a higher quality of created situations. Tapatío has weak efficiency on away trips - barely 13% wins and a negative goal difference (-2), conceding an average of 1.25 goals per match. The recent form of both teams is balanced, however, the home advantage and better offensive indicators of the hosts speak in their favor. An average of 2.1 goals in Tepatitlán's home matches and 2.25 in Tapatío's away matches suggests that the match could be high-scoring, but the hosts have greater chances of triumph.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Tepatitlán de Morelos | Tapatío | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.24 | 0.35 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Tapatío is 40% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Tepatitlán de Morelos · 1.4 pts / match - Tapatío
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Tapatío is 30% better for: goals scored per match.
1.25 goals / match - Tepatitlán de Morelos · 1.63 goals / match - Tapatío
Tepatitlán de Morelos is 38% better for: goals conceded per match.
1 goals / match - Tepatitlán de Morelos · 1.38 goals / match - Tapatío
Tepatitlán de Morelos scores in 70% of matches (14 of 20 matches), while Tapatío keeps a clean sheet in 19% (3 of 16 matches).
Tapatío scores in 75% of matches (12 of 16 matches), while Tepatitlán de Morelos keeps a clean sheet in 25% (5 of 20 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Tepatitlán de Morelos
Over / Under - Tapatío
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Tapatío is 36% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.1 pts / match - Tepatitlán de Morelos · 1.5 pts / match - Tapatío
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Tepatitlán de Morelos - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 30%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Tapatío - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 38% of matches and wins 31%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 2.6 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 0% |
| No goal | 0% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +4 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (10 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +8 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Tepatitlán de Morelos
Tapatío
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ascenso MX).
Teams vs league
| Tepatitlán de Morelos | Liga | Tapatío | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.25 | 2.98 | • 3.00 |
| Both teams scored | • 55% | 56% | ▲ 63% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 35% | 56% | ▲ 63% |
| Clean sheets | • 25% | 25% | ▼ 19% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 75% | 77% | ▲ 88% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 75% | 81% | ▼ 75% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Tepatitlán de Morelos 1 - 0 - 0 Tapatío. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Tapatío?
The Ascenso MX match finished Tepatitlán de Morelos 2:0 Tapatío. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Tapatío?
Tepatitlán de Morelos score 1.25 goals per game on average and Tapatío 1.63. The Ascenso MX average is 2.98 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 56% of games. Both teams score in 55% of Tepatitlán de Morelos's matches and 63% of Tapatío's.
What form are Tepatitlán de Morelos and Tapatío in?
Over the last 5 games Tepatitlán de Morelos have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Tapatío 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Tapatío?
The statistical background for Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Tapatío — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.