Teplice vs Bohemians 1905: match statistics

Teplice have scored 11 goals in their last 5 matches (2.20 per match) and conceded 4 (0.80 per match), recording 4 wins and 1 draw and averaging 2.6 points per match in that period. Bohemians 1905 have scored 9 goals in their last 5 matches (1.80 per match) and conceded 5 (1.00 per match), with 4 wins and 1 loss and averaging 2.4 points per match. Although Bohemians sit 2nd in the table and Teplice are 13th, Teplice’s advantage in recent attacking output and superior defensive record (11-4 versus 9-5) indicates strong form for the hosts. Considering Teplice’s higher goal averages and points per match over the last 5 fixtures, and the fact the hosts remained unbeaten in those five games, I back a Teplice win. Suggested probabilities: 55% home, 25% draw, 20% away, reflecting Teplice’s short-term edge against an opponent with higher estimated season strength.

Seasonal data are incomplete (many fields = 0), so analysis is based on the last 5 matches. Both teams have BTTS at 60% in their last 5 matches, which is an equal and strong signal indicating goals from both sides. Teplice in those 5 matches scored 11 goals (2.2 per match) and conceded 4 (0.8), while Bohemians scored 9 goals (1.8) and conceded 5 (1.0), so both sides regularly score and allow goals. xG analysis shows 1.17 for Teplice versus xG against 1.58 and 1.48 for Bohemians versus xG against 1.50, suggesting Teplice may be more exposed to scoring opportunities while Bohemians generate a similar number of chances. Considering identical 60% BTTS, average goals 2.2 vs 1.8, the xG differentials and good form for both teams (Teplice dwwww, Bohemians wwwlw), I project BTTS - Yes ~72% versus 28% No (clean sheet unlikely).

Expected goals are 1.34 for Teplice and 1.53 for Bohemians, totaling 2.87 goals; I calculated this by averaging the home attack xG 1.17 with the away defense xG 1.50 and the away attack xG 1.48 with the home defense xG 1.58. Both teams are in strong form: Teplice scored 11 goals in their last 5 matches (avg 2.2) and concede on average 0.8, while Bohemians scored 9 goals in 5 matches (avg 1.8) and concede 1.0. In the last 5 meetings Teplice recorded Over 2.5 in 40% of cases, Bohemians in 60%, and both teams produced BTTS in 60% of matches, which supports a scenario of at least two goals. Considering the expected 2.87 goals and 60% BTTS, I estimate a high probability for Over 1.5 (90%) and a moderate probability for Over 2.5 (65%), while Over 3.5 is unlikely (28%). Therefore I recommend a bet on Over 1.5 as the strongest signal: the expected 2.87 goals and the recent averages of 2.2 and 1.8 goals scored by the teams in the last 5 matches give a clear edge to this market.

In the last five matches Teplice have averaged 2.2 goals per game versus 1.8 for Bohemians, conceding 0.8 on average compared to 1.0 for the visitors, which indicates a home advantage in goal differential. In the first half both teams average 0.8 goals each, and a lead at the break occurred in 40% of matches for each side, with a Half-Time draw also in 40% of cases, so a level score at 45 minutes is a frequent outcome. The second half, however, favors Teplice — they score on average 1.4 goals after the break versus 1.0 for Bohemians, and the home side saw at least one goal after the break in 100% of the last five matches (80% for the visitors), which supports turnarounds or decisions in the second half. Considering the above, the most probable scenario is a Half-Time draw and a home win Full-Time (X/1): I assign it a 30% probability, while the 1/1 outcome I rate at 20% due to Teplice’s form (4 wins and 1 draw, 80% victories in the last five) and superior offensive efficiency. Scenarios favorable to the visitors (e.g. 2/1 or 2/2 combined 10%) are less likely because Bohemians have a lower goal average (1.8) and a higher average conceded in the second half (0.6), which makes it harder for them to maintain a lead.