Teplice vs Dukla Praha: match statistics

Teplice are the favorites: at home they average 1.0 goal per match with an average xG of 1.31, while Dukla on the road records only 0.65 goals and xG 1.21. The hosts’ defense is superior — Teplice concede 1.12 goals per home match, whereas Dukla concede 1.47 on the road; Dukla’s opponents generate 1.74 xG on average versus 1.39 xG against Teplice. Teplice are also more efficient in finishing (9% shot conversion vs 6% for Dukla) and have a much lower share of goalless games (29% vs 53%), despite similar totals in shots (10.71 vs 10.18) and shots on target (3.47 vs 3.59). In the last 5 matches Teplice have scored 9 goals and average 1.4 points per game, Dukla 6 goals and 1.2 points, indicating a slight form edge for the hosts. Therefore I assess the probabilities as 60% for Teplice, 25% for a draw and 15% for a Dukla win.

The analysis indicates a higher probability of BTTS - Yes: in the last 5 matches both Teplice and Dukla had BTTS in 80% of cases, while the season BTTS rates are 38% for Teplice and 47% for Dukla. Season goals averages are 0.75 (Teplice) and 0.65 (Dukla), but in the last 5 matches Teplice score 1.8 on average and Dukla 1.2; concurrently Teplice have conceded 1.6 on average in their last 5 and Dukla 1.4, which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides. xG comparison also supports BTTS: averaging attack and defense yields predicted goals Teplice ≈ (1.12 + 1.74)/2 = 1.43 and Dukla ≈ (1.21 + 1.59)/2 = 1.40, totaling about 2.83 xG per match. Additionally only 25% of Teplice matches and 18% of Dukla matches end in a clean sheet, and Dukla record 3.59 shots on target versus 2.56 for Teplice, which raises the probability of both teams scoring. Considering the strong signal from the last 5 matches (80%), predicted xG ≈ 2.8 and low clean sheet rates, I assess BTTS probability at 70% vs 30% and recommend a BTTS - Yes bet.

Expected goals are 1.43 for Teplice and 1.40 for Dukla, totaling 2.83 (xG Teplice 1.12 vs opponents concede 1.74; xG Dukla 1.21 vs opponents concede 1.59). Season-long, over 1.5 goals occurred in 75% of Teplice matches and 76% of Dukla matches, which combined with a total xG of 2.83 provides strong support for Over 1.5. The probability of Over 2.5 is moderate: seasonally only 25% and 35% of matches exceeded 2.5, but in the last 5 games the Over 2.5 rate rose to 60% (Teplice) and 80% (Dukla); a Poisson model with lambda=2.83 gives roughly a 53% chance for Over 2.5. Over 3.5 is unlikely both seasonally (13% and 12%) and per the Poisson model (~31%). Therefore I recommend backing Over 1.5 as the strongest signal (≈77% probability), while Over 2.5 (~53%) is riskier and Over 3.5 should be treated as low probability.

My forecast is built on averages before and after the break: the home side scores on average 0.56 goals by half-time and 0.19 in the second half (0.75 total), the visitors 0.41 and 0.24 (0.65 total); xG is 1.12 for Teplice versus 1.21 for Dukla, while xG against is 1.59/1.74, which suggests limited finishing and a high number of draws. A Poisson model with these parameters yields a high probability of a draw at the break (~47%) and the single highest probability for the HT/FT combination draw/draw at about 32%. The second most likely outcome is the home side leading at the break and winning the match (1/1) ~27%, while the scenario draw at half-time and home win (X/1) is about 7%; an away win after leading at the break (2/2) is assessed at about 19%. Seasonal stats corroborate the tendency toward draws: the home side were level at half-time in 38% of matches, visitors in 35%, and final draws occur in 31% of home matches and 35% of away matches. Accordingly, the strongest signal from the data is X/X (draw at the break and draw at full-time).