Teplice vs Jablonec: match statistics

Jablonec are 6th in the table and have won all 3 of their league matches so far, while Teplice have a record of 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats. The visitors are clearly trending better: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches and conceded only 2 goals in that run, whereas Teplice scored 10 goals over the same period but conceded 12. Away from home, Jablonec won their only match without conceding, while Teplice concede an average of 2.67 goals at home and have yet to keep a clean sheet. The hosts create more chances, averaging 14.67 shots and an xG of 1.54, but their defence allows opponents an xG of 1.51, which, combined with Jablonec’s 50% conversion rate, increases the visitors’ chances. However, Jablonec’s low away xG of 0.55 means Teplice should still have a realistic chance of scoring and securing a draw.

The strongest signal for BTTS - No comes from Jablonec’s away defensive record: the team have yet to concede a goal, have kept clean sheets in 100% of their matches, and have recorded 0% of games in which both teams scored. Teplice do produce a solid 1.68 xG at home and average 4.5 shots on target, but Jablonec have conceded just 0.4 goals per game across their last five matches. The visitors also have limited attacking potential away from home, with average xG of only 0.55, along with 2 shots on target and 4 attempts per match, while Teplice concede just 0.5 goals at home. Teplice’s last five matches increase the risk of a Jablonec goal, as the hosts conceded 2.4 goals per game during that run, but the visitors’ away BTTS rate of 20% still clearly supports the outcome in which at least one team fails to score.

Teplice create chances worth an average of 1.68 xG at home, while Jablonec allow opponents 2.18 xG away from home, pointing to approximately 1.65 goals for the hosts. However, Jablonec’s attacking potential is limited: they generate just 0.55 xG on average away from home, while Teplice concede an average of 0.5 goals at home. In their last five matches, Jablonec conceded just 2 goals, or 0.4 per game, although their average xG conceded was 1.52, indicating some risk of a Teplice goal. Neither team has recorded a match with more than 3 goals in the current home–away split, and both teams have registered 100% of their matches with under 3.5 goals. The projected total of 2.35 goals gives a clear edge to Under 3.5 goals, although the 2.5 line remains significantly more balanced.

Jablonec were leading at half-time in 60% of their last five matches and avoided defeat in all of them, while Teplice were trailing at the break in 60% of their games. The visitors are also in clearly stronger form in terms of results: they have recorded four wins in their last five matches, compared with just two for Teplice. Jablonec’s defence conceded an average of 0.4 goals per match during this period, including just 0.2 goals before half-time, which strengthens the scenario of them maintaining an early lead. However, Teplice have the higher average xG, 1.68 compared with 0.55, and have scored an average of 1.0 goals after half-time across their last five appearances, so the probability of a turnaround cannot be disregarded. Nevertheless, the strongest individual HT/FT outcome remains Jablonec leading at the break and securing the final victory (1/1).