Teplice vs Slovácko: match statistics

Teplice have a statistical advantage in offense and in goal-scoring situations: at home they score on average 0.93 goals per match with an average xG of 1.36, while Slovácko score 0.6 goals away with xG 1.24. Defensively Teplice also perform better — they concede 1.13 goals at home versus 1.6 conceded by Slovácko on the road, and in the last 5 matches the visitors have conceded 14 goals while Teplice conceded 8. Additionally, the hosts have 40% of home matches without conceding compared to only 20% clean sheets for the visitors away, a lower share of matches without scoring (33% vs 53%) and a better shot conversion rate (8% vs 6%) with averages of 11.2 shots and 3.6 on target versus Slovácko’s 10.8 and 3.07. Form for both sides is poor, but Slovácko are in a worse position — the visitors have lost all of their last 5 matches and have 0 points in that period, while Teplice in their last 5 recorded 2 draws and 3 losses (an average of 0.4 points per match). Based on this I predict a home win; proposed probabilities are 60% for Teplice, 25% for a draw and 15% for a Slovácko win.

I back BTTS (Both Teams To Score) at 70% vs 30% because both teams have defensive issues: Teplice concede 1.4 goals per game on average, while Slovácko concede 1.6. In the last 5 matches the BTTS signal is even stronger — Teplice had BTTS in 60% of games, Slovácko in 100%; in those five matches Slovácko conceded an average of 2.8 goals and Teplice 1.6, increasing the likelihood of goals from both sides. xG and shots analysis shows a similar picture: Teplice produce 1.53 xG with 4.2 shots on target and have xG against of 1.50, while Slovácko have 1.24 xG with 3.07 shots on target but xG against of 1.85 — both sides create and allow scoring opportunities. Seasonal BTTS rates are 47% for Teplice and 40% for Slovácko, slightly below the league level of 50%, but recent form (notably the visitors’ 100% BTTS in 5 matches) shifts expectations toward Yes. Additionally, Slovácko have conceded 45 goals this season and the league averages 2.6 goals per match, so I assess BTTS as a strong signal and estimate a 70% chance of Yes.

I expect around 3.06 total goals (Teplice 1.69, Slovácko 1.37) based on a combination of the home xG and the away defensive xG. Teplice have an xG of 1.53 per match, while Slovácko concedes on average 1.85 xG against them, yielding ~1.69 xG for the home side; Slovácko have an xG of 1.24 and Teplice’s defense concedes 1.50 xG, hence ~1.37 for the visitors. Additionally, Teplice have 60% of their season matches over 2.5 goals, and Slovácko record 100% of matches over 2.5 goals in their last five fixtures; the visitors have conceded 14 goals in their last 5 matches (2.8 per match), which increases the likelihood of higher scoring. A Poisson model with λ≈3.06 gives roughly an 81% chance for Over 1.5 and about 59% for Over 2.5, while Over 3.5 has only ~37% probability. For these reasons the strongest signal is the Over at the 1.5 line — high xG, Slovácko’s weak defense and seasonal rates of 80% (Teplice >1.5) vs 67% (Slovácko >1.5) support at least two goals in the match.

At half-time a draw is most likely — home teams were level at the break in 40% of matches, and away teams also in 40%, making a HT draw the strongest signal. Teplice hold advantages in key metrics: they average 1.13 goals per game versus Slovácko’s 0.6, their xG is 1.53 compared to the visitors’ 1.24, and shots on target are 4.2 versus 3.07, so the greater offensive activity from the hosts supports a decisive outcome after the break. In the second half the hosts score on average 0.53 goals while the visitors only 0.2, and the hosts’ average points is 1.0 versus the visitors’ 0.53 points, suggesting Teplice may turn the game in their favor after half-time. Additionally, the form over the last five matches shows Slovácko have not won any of their five games (lllll), which increases the hosts’ chance of victory. On this basis I pick HT/FT X/1 (draw at half-time, home win) as the most likely scenario.