Teplice vs Zbrojovka Brno: match statistics

Teplice sit higher in the table, in 7th place compared with Zbrojovka Brno’s 11th, and have collected 10 points from their last five matches, recording 3 wins and a draw. The hosts create significantly more at home, averaging 14.5 shots and 5.5 on target per match, while Brno manage just 4 attempts away from home, including 2 on target. Teplice also hold the edge in chance quality, with average xG of 1.62 compared with the visitors’ 0.76. However, Zbrojovka remain unbeaten away from home and have drawn 100% of their matches there so far, while Teplice concede as many as 3 goals per home game despite an opposition xG of 1.82. Therefore, the hosts are favourites due to their attacking strength and current run of form, but their defensive vulnerability clearly increases the likelihood of a draw.

The “Yes” pick is supported by both teams’ strong current tendency to produce matches with goals at both ends: in their last five fixtures, BTTS landed in 60% of Teplice’s matches and 80% of Zbrojovka Brno’s. Teplice averaged 2.4 goals scored during this period but conceded 2.0, while Brno scored 1.8 goals per match and conceded just 1.0. The hosts have struggled to protect their own goal, as shown by an xG against of 2.06 over their last five matches, so the visitors should create chances despite their lower seasonal xG average of 0.76. Teplice, meanwhile, average 5.0 shots on target compared with Brno’s 2.0, and their latest xG of 1.46 exceeds the visitors’ 1.31, strengthening the expectation of a home goal. Further confirmation comes from the league-wide BTTS average of 67%, exactly matching the assessment for this fixture.

Both teams have displayed a clearly attacking profile in their last five matches: Teplice averaged 2.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, while Zbrojovka Brno scored 1.8 goals per game. Overall, Teplice’s matches averaged 4.4 goals during this period, compared with 2.8 goals in Brno’s games, supporting the scenario of at least two goals. The quality of chances created is also solid, with five-match average xG of 1.46 for the home side and 1.34 for the visitors, while Teplice allowed 2.06 xG. Over 1.5 goals has landed in all of Brno’s matches so far, and the lack of clean sheets on either side further strengthens Over 1.5 as the safest line.

The most likely outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Teplice win: in their last five matches, the hosts have scored an average of 1.4 goals after the break and won the second half in 80% of cases. Brno have also scored an average of 1.4 goals after the interval, but they have recorded draws in 100% of their away matches so far, which reinforces the scenario of a closely contested opening. Teplice possess greater attacking potential, averaging 1.29 xG compared with Brno’s 0.76 and registering 5.0 shots on target per match versus their opponents’ 2.0. A first-half draw is also supported by Brno’s more cautious profile in their last five matches: they conceded just 0.2 goals per game before the break and kept a clean sheet in 80% of those halves. After the interval, however, the hosts should capitalise on their home advantage and superior creative quality, which is why the X/1 option receives the highest rating.