Termez Surkhon vs Buxoro: match statistics
Termez Surkhon vs Buxoro: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Termez Surkhon played Buxoro in Uzbekistan Super League (Uzbekistan). The match was played on 4 April 2026. Final score: 3:1.
Current form
Termez Surkhon: 1-1-2, 1.00 points/match. Buxoro: 3-1-0, 2.50 points/match.
Goal statistics
Termez Surkhon scores 0.50 and concedes 1.50 goals per match. Buxoro scores 1.50 and concedes 0.50. League average: 2.49 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Termez Surkhon 25%, Buxoro 50%. Over 2.5: Termez Surkhon 50%, Buxoro 25%. League level: BTTS 44%, Over 2.5 51%.
xG, shots and style
Buxoro has higher xG: 1.41 vs 1.12. Termez Surkhon: 10.8 shots per match, Buxoro: 11.5.
Match halves
Termez Surkhon: half-time lead 0%, second-half goals 0.50. Buxoro: half-time lead 50%, second-half goals 1.00.
Goals by minute
Termez Surkhon: 61-75 (1 goals). Buxoro: 46-60 (2 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Uzbekistan Super League: 2.49 goals per match, BTTS 44%, Over 2.5 51%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-0. Average goals 0.50, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Buxoro is the favorite in this matchup: they sit 2nd in the table with a record of 3 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses, while Termez Surkhon are 14th with 1 win, 1 draw and 2 losses. Form favors the visitors — Buxoro have 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5, averaging 2.6 points per game, whereas Termez average 1.4 points over their last 5. Although the hosts dominate possession (54%) and average 13 shots per home match, their efficiency is poor: at home they average 0 goals per game, only 0.5 shots on target and 100% of matches without scoring, while conceding 1.5 goals on average. Buxoro away average 1 goal per game, 2 shots on target, a 13% conversion rate and maintain 100% clean sheets away (0 goals conceded on average). Additionally, Termez have home xG of 1.24 but actual 0 goals, indicating inefficiency, whereas Buxoro have away xG of 0.76 and convert that into a real 1 goal; therefore I tip a Buxoro win (70%) with 20% chance of a draw and 10% for a home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I back BTTS - No — the strongest signal is that Buxoro has 100% clean sheets away and a season BTTS rate of 0%. The league context also favors defense: 65% of matches end in clean sheets and only 41% are BTTS, lowering the baseline probability of both teams scoring. Termez Surkhon produces more offense (avg 1.67 goals scored, xG 1.62 and 5.67 shots on target) compared to Buxoro (1.0 goals, xG 0.76 and 2.0 shots on target), but the home side have had BTTS in only 20% of their last 5 matches while the visitors in 40%. In their last 5 matches Buxoro scored 7 and conceded 2 (avg 1.4 scored and 0.4 conceded) with an average xG against of 1.35, indicating defensive efficiency despite some opponent xG. Overall the stronger and more consistent signals are Buxoro’s away clean sheets and the league’s high clean sheet rate, so I assess 70% probability for 'no' and 30% for 'yes'.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Average team xG is 1.62 for Termez and 0.76 for Buxoro, while average xG against is 1.24 (Termez) and 1.53 (Buxoro), yielding a forecast of 1.58 xG for the home side and 1.00 for the away side, i.e. 2.58 total. Termez averages 1.67 goals and records 5.67 shots on target per match versus 1.00 goal and 2.0 on-target for Buxoro, indicating a clear offensive edge for the hosts. Seasonally Termez had over 1.5 in 67% of matches, Buxoro 0%, and the league average goals is 2.41; taking into account the expected 2.58 goals and the last 5 matches (Termez 3 goals in 5, Buxoro 7), the strongest signal is over 1.5 goals. Therefore I recommend an Over 1.5 goals bet as the best option; I estimate probabilities: Over 1.5 — 88% (Under 12%), Over 2.5 — 56% (Under 44%) and Over 3.5 — 22% (Under 78%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and an away win (X/2): the visitors draw at the break in 100% of their matches and have won 100% of fixtures this season, and in the second half they score on average 1.0 goals and concede none (second-half goals conceded = 0.0). The counterargument is that the home side lead at the break in 67% of cases and score on average 0.67 goals before half-time, so scenarios in which Termez Surkhon lead at the break (1/X or 1/1) also make sense. The hosts generate more chances (xG 1.62 versus the visitors’ 0.76 and 5.67 shots on target versus Buxoro’s 2.0), which increases the likelihood of a goal before the break, but the visitors are very efficient both offensively and defensively (an average of 3.0 points per match versus the hosts’ 2.33 and 100% of matches with a clean sheet and an average of 0.0 goals conceded), which favors a turnaround after the break. As a result I assigned the highest single weight to the X/2 scenario (30%), a moderate weight to a draw after 90 minutes (X/X 17%), and weights to scenarios with the hosts leading at the break and later drawing or winning (1/X 18%, 1/1 10%); the remaining combinations are less likely.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Termez Surkhon | Buxoro | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 16% | 41% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Buxoro is 150% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Termez Surkhon · 2.5 pts / match - Buxoro
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Buxoro is 200% better for: goals scored per match.
0.5 goals / match - Termez Surkhon · 1.5 goals / match - Buxoro
Buxoro is 200% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.5 goals / match - Termez Surkhon · 0.5 goals / match - Buxoro
Termez Surkhon scores in 50% of matches (2 of 4 matches), while Buxoro keeps a clean sheet in 50% (2 of 4 matches).
Buxoro scores in 100% of matches (4 of 4 matches), while Termez Surkhon keeps a clean sheet in 50% (2 of 4 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Termez Surkhon
Over / Under - Buxoro
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Buxoro is 250% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.5 pts / match - Termez Surkhon · 1.75 pts / match - Buxoro
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Termez Surkhon - second-half results
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Buxoro - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 50% of matches and wins 75%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.5 | 1.5 |
| 1 goal | 50% | 75% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 50% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 25% |
| Clean sheet | 50% | 50% |
| No goal | 100% | 50% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.75 | 1.75 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| 1 goal | 75% | 75% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 25% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 25% |
| Clean sheet | 75% | 75% |
| No goal | 50% | 50% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (1 goal). Concedes most in 61-75 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (2 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (1). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Termez Surkhon
Buxoro
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Uzbekistan Super League).
Teams vs league
| Termez Surkhon | Liga | Buxoro | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.00 | 2.49 | ▼ 2.00 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 25% | 44% | ▲ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 50% | 51% | ▼ 25% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 50% | 31% | ▲ 50% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 50% | 72% | ▲ 75% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 75% | 79% | ▼ 75% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Termez Surkhon 1 - 1 - 0 Buxoro. Average goals 0.50, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Termez Surkhon vs Buxoro?
The Uzbekistan Super League match finished Termez Surkhon 3:1 Buxoro. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Termez Surkhon and Buxoro?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Termez Surkhon won 1, Buxoro won 0 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 0.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Termez Surkhon vs Buxoro?
Termez Surkhon score 0.50 goals per game on average and Buxoro 1.50. The Uzbekistan Super League average is 2.49 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 51% of games. Both teams score in 25% of Termez Surkhon's matches and 50% of Buxoro's.
What form are Termez Surkhon and Buxoro in?
Over the last 5 games Termez Surkhon have a 1-1-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Buxoro 3-1-0 (2.50 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Termez Surkhon vs Buxoro?
The statistical background for Termez Surkhon vs Buxoro — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.